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安居樂業，是中國人自古不變的追求。前段時間，各地天價學區房紛紛爆出新聞，引發全民的關注：學歷日漸貶值，學區房卻幾乎一小時升一個價。
房子，究竟有怎樣的魔力？為何大家樂此不疲地投資買房？到底房能夠給我們提供溫暖的蝸殼還是沉重的包袱？日本高速發展時期的泡沫經濟破滅到底還有多少年會在的國內上演？
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When a bubble is not a bubble
A severe imbalance in land supply fuels China’s wild property market
ESTATE agents in China, as elsewhere in the world, are normally a smooth-talking, self-assured bunch. But Liu Zhendong, a salesman at a large development in the northern reaches of Shanghai, is afflicted by doubts. He had expected business to be solid and steady this year. Instead, it has been manic, with clients jostling to see show apartments. Some had hoped to wait for the market to cool, but capitulated and bought as prices climbed higher week after week. Flats in the area, the once-rural village of Malu, still dotted with fields and scruffy wholesale food markets, now cost 90% more than a year ago. “It feels a bit like a bubble,” he says.
Bubble：泡泡，在金融領域用的比較多的叫泡沫。
比如：The pre-crisis bubble masked fundamental problems with the US economy.
危機之前的泡沫掩蓋了美國經濟中的根本性問題。
房地產泡沫property bubble，housing bubble。
severe imbalance= disproportion不平衡，不成比例。
Fuel :名詞，燃料，這里fuel作動詞了，為。。。。提供了燃料，其實就是激發了，在政治外交詞匯中經常出現，例如fuel economic growth，意為拉動經濟增長。
real ESTATE agents ：房地產代理
smooth-talking ：巧舌如簧
self-assured ：胸有成竹的
development ：在這里是開發區的意思
Reaches ：郊區，邊緣區
Manic= wild ：發瘋的
Dot ：點，在這里表“散布著”
Scruffy ：骯臟的
第一段一上來講了房地產代理，和其他地方一樣，他們有幾個特征：巧舌如簧并且胸有成竹的。緊接著轉折，講到一個人叫劉征東，一個在上海北邊開發區的銷售員。這個銷售員被質疑折磨著。為啥嘞？他本來期待今年穩一點，沒想到
客戶搶著要看展示房。一些人本來希望等市場冷靜一下，但是看著市場一周一周的攀升，也就屈服了，買了。這個區域的公寓曾經是農村，周圍還有農田以及破敗的批發市場，現在價格卻比去年增長了90%。他說：“感覺像泡沫！”
第一段講樓市的瘋狂，有人覺得這不正常，有泡沫！
Mr Liu is in good company. Even the head of the central bank’s research bureau, usually cautious in his choice of language, has said a property bubble must be stopped before it gets too big. House prices have climbed by 16% nationwide over the past year, and double or even triple that in big cities. So in the past two weeks more than 20 municipalities have tried to calm the market down—for example, by requiring higher down-payments or limiting purchases by residents of other cities.
In good company不等于in a good company，這里表示“不止他一個這么想”。
不止他一個這么想，就連央行研究中心的頭兒，平常對于自己的言辭非常謹慎的人也說房產泡沫必須在變得更大前被扼制。國內房價相比去年攀升了16%，在大城市翻了兩番甚至三番。所以，過去兩個星期，超過20個省市試圖讓市場冷靜下來，比如提高首付比例，或者限購。
As the past decade has shown, the ups and downs of China’s housing market are of global significance. Totting up the property sector’s impact on investment and consumption (all the furniture and gizmos that fill new homes), it accounts for about a quarter of Chinese GDP. So this year’s rebound has prompted both hope and dread. It has helped GDP growth stabilise at about 6.7%, faster than most analysts forecast in January (third-quarter data will be released on October 19th). Stronger demand for iron ore and copper has given beleaguered miners a measure of relief.
ups and downs ：起起伏伏，Life?is?full?of?ups?and?downs.?生活是曲折的。
Copper ：銅
過去幾十年，中國方式的起伏那是有著全球意義的。房地產業的投資和消費（添置房子的家具和裝飾品）總共占了我們GDP的25%。所以今年的回升是有喜也有憂啊。喜的是GDP增長速度穩定在6.7%，比大多數預測要高。對銅鐵的需求給了礦企一條活路。
Optimism, however, has been tempered by concerns about the nature of the revival. Surveys indicate that about one-fifth of buyers are investors rather than owner-occupiers. CEBM, a research firm, estimates that this share rises to up to 60% in core districts of mid-sized cities. Even more worrying has been the increase in property developers’ borrowing. Zhang Zhiwei of Deutsche Bank says they face a prisoner’s dilemma: if too conservative, they will get squeezed out of the market; so they choose to be aggressive. They have driven up land prices by 66% this year, according to an index of 100 leading cities. Mr Zhang examined 252 of these land auctions and concluded that two-fifths of winning bidders will lose money if house prices level out, let alone decline.
但是樂觀情緒被這種復蘇的本質緩和了。復蘇的本質是什么呢？研究表明：1/5的購買不是住房人是投資人。研究公司CEBM估計：中等城市的核心地段這個比例應該是60%以上。更多的擔憂是，開發商借了太多錢。德意志銀行的張志偉說：他們面對的囚徒困境。
到底什么是囚徒困境呢？采取激進措施就能夠擺脫困境么？囚徒困境一詞并不是經濟學人現造的，這是一個博弈論中的術語，兩個共謀犯被關入監獄，不能互相溝通。如果兩個人都不揭發對方，則由于證據不確定，每個人都坐牢一年；若一人揭發，而另一人沉默，則揭發者因為立功而立即獲釋，沉默者因不合作而入獄五年；若互相揭發，則因證據確實，二者都判刑兩年。大家猜結果會怎樣？
由于囚徒無法信任對方，因此傾向于互相揭發，采取激進措施，而不是同守沉默。放置在房地產的大市場中，囚徒是誰？各大房地產商，購房者，而知曉一切游戲規則或者說牢房的建造者，則是政府。而在這一個危險游戲中，購房者作為掌握信息最少的玩家，最容易受到危害。而開發商為了達到自己的最大利益，采取激進措施，他們把土地價格給推升了66%。
這個張先生研究了252期的土地拍賣并且得出結論說即使土地價格上升，2/5的中標者都會賠錢，更別說土地價格下降了。老百姓只能捂著自己的錢包自我落淚。
The sharp rise in house prices also seems out of kilter with the broader economic picture. Income growth is slowing as the economy matures, making homes steadily less affordable. That helps explain the frenzy in the market. During a holiday week at the start of October, huge crowds swamped sales centres when new properties were put on the market. In Shanghai, divorces have spiked as people take advantage of a loophole in regulations. Couples can get a preferential mortgage rate only on their first home. Divorced spouses can benefit by buying homes separately and then remarrying.
The sharp rise in house prices also seems out of kilter with the broader economic picture.
out of kilter with sth ：與…格格不入。
所以這句話就是房價的飆升和更廣的經濟藍圖格格不入。
Spike ：突然上升
regulation loophole ：政策漏洞
隨著經濟成熟，收入增長速度變慢了，導致的結果就是：房價已經負擔不起了。這解釋了市場的瘋狂。新樓盤一面市，人群就擠爆了售樓中心。下面講了一個非常有中國特色的現象：假離婚。在上海，離婚率迅速上升，因為人們利用買房的制度漏洞，通過離婚獲得比較好的貸款利率：夫妻只能第一套房有一個首付比率，但是離婚的夫妻就可以買兩套了。
Such behaviour smacks of irrational exuberance, but caution is in order before delivering that verdict. Investors, analysts and the press have been predicting Chinese real-estate Armageddon for the better part of a decade. But there has been no nationwide crash. Prices have weakened for a time, typically when the government clamps down on buying, only to take off again every few years.
Smack ：扇巴掌，煽動
Chinese real-estate Armageddon[?ɑ:rm??gedn] ：中國房地產末日
clamp down ：嚴厲打擊；強制執行；嚴禁；施壓
這樣的行為煽起了不理性的繁榮，但是在做出裁決之前要小心注意。投資者，分析師和媒體近10年來都在預測中國房地產末日要來了。但是房地產沒有崩潰。政府采取措施時價格下降了一段時間，但很快又回升了。
For all the signs of excess, officials have in fact done well to guard against the biggest potential vulnerability: over-borrowing by homebuyers. Despite a recent surge in mortgage lending, household balance-sheets are on the whole in good shape. Moreover, strict down-payment rules mean that buyers typically put up cash for as much as half the price of the home. Even if prices fall, they are unlikely to walk away from their mortgage debt. This helps insure against the downward spiral of foreclosures and falling prices that has wreaked havoc in other countries.
vulnerability [?v?ln?r?'b?l?t?] ：脆弱
downward spiral [?da?nw?d ?spa?r?l] ：惡性循環
官方做的還不錯，防止最大的危機：購房者的過度借貸。
過度借貸：比如在早期的上海有一種玩法是這樣的：首付一套房子，然后賣掉它，用得到的全款同時再購入3套，再從三套里賣掉一套，然后用這個賣房的錢再入三套，這樣持續玩著，就可以很低成本的炒房了。當然后來限購和二套房首付提高這種限制出來之后確實限制了普通人這么玩，但是專業玩家還是可以繼續的。
嚴格的按揭貸款規則相當于讓購房者支付了房價一半的費用了。即使房價下跌，他們也不可能從自己的房貸中脫身。這有利于應對喪失抵押品贖回權帶來的惡性循環以及已經帶給其他國家極大傷害的價格下跌。
This is not to deny that the Chinese property market faces serious problems. But “bubble” may be a misdiagnosis. The real pathology is a severe imbalance in land supply, argues Larry Hu of Macquarie Securities. Smaller cities have plenty of land for building but shrinking populations. Big cities, where people actually want to live and work, are sitting on large land banks but releasing only small plots. Shanghai has about 1,800 sq km of farmland but sold only five sq km for home-building last year. The result, predictably, has been soaring home prices.
Shrink ：縮水。這里有一個很有趣的用法，Shrink也可意為心理咨詢師，是 俚語head-shrinker的簡稱，為什么心理醫生被稱之為縮頭人呢？你想想當精神壓力很大，滿腹心事的時候，特別容易覺得自己一個頭有兩個大，腦子都要被煩惱擠爆了的感覺。而通過心理醫生的診療調適，慢慢地心結就解開了，問題也想通了，精神上的壓力也就減小了，感覺好像頭腦又縮回到正常的大小，這就是head-shrinker的由來。
Soaring ：嗖嗖的漲，不知道大家想到了關于增長的詞還有哪些？booming，爆炸式增長~boosting…. 蹭蹭的漲~
這并不是否認中國房地產市場面臨嚴重問題。但是泡沫也許是一個誤判。那么真正原因是什么呢？土地供給的嚴重失衡。怎么個不平衡呢？小城市：足夠多的土地，但是人口在下降。至于大城市，想買都買不到房。列了上海的數據作為例子，最終結果是房價嗖嗖的漲。
Why not sell much more land in big cities? Doing so would fundamentally alter the rules of the game, causing pain for lots of important players, Mr Hu argues. Governments in big cities count on incremental land sales as a source of revenue; governments in small cities hope the restrictions will eventually send people their way. This is, in other words, a political problem as much as an economic one.
alter the rules of the game ：改變游戲規則
既然是土地供應的問題，那大城市為啥不能賣更多土地呢？這么做相當于從本質上改變了游戲規則，導致主要玩家比較痛苦。大城市的政府指望著把逐步的土地銷售當作一個收入來源。小城市的政府則希望，限購可以把大家送到自己這里來。所以我們可以看出來，這是一個經濟問題，同時也是一個政治問題呢。
Mr Liu, the agent at the Malu development, knows both sides of the property market. A few years ago he bought a flat in his home town of Jiuhuashan, a five-hour drive to the south-west. It now gathers dust, empty except for a week during the Chinese New Year holiday, when he returns home. Still young, he has no intention of moving back to Jiuhuashan permanently. The mountains there are stunning but the economy sleepy. Rather, Mr Liu hopes to buy a home in Shanghai eventually and has started saving up for it. The booming prices of the past year have kept him busy at work, but pushed his dream ever further into the distance.
這里繼續說到劉先生，他了解房地產市場的兩面。他在自己老家買了房子，可是只有過年回家一次，其他時候房子都是空的，還年輕，又不想太早回去。而劉先生呢，想在上海買房，已經開始存款了，然而夢想和現實距離越來越遠。去年房價的飆升使得他忙于工作，但是也讓他距離自己的夢想越來越遠。
所以借鑒任志強叔叔的一句話：所有買不起房的人都是因為沒有努力工作。不說了，掙不了一個億，看來得逃離北上廣了。
英文原文：
http://www.economist.com/news
講解：霞姐 / Tiassa / 魔力?；?/p>
編排 / 校對：魔力?；?/p>
版權歸魔力學院所有，鼓勵轉發，轉載也可
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《Brexit——Doing it the hard way》
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