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認識一下年輕有為，風頭正勁的埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍，他４０歲不到，原是左派陣營一名政治新星，2016年７月成立自己的政黨“前進”，宣稱要超越左右陣營之別。他2016年８月正式辭去經濟部長一職，并于當年１１月宣布參加大選。他是極右翼政黨國民陣線主席瑪麗娜·勒龐共和黨總統候選人、前總理，弗朗索瓦·菲永最強勁的對手。信息來自網絡，侵刪。
COGOLIN AND PARIS
Resurgent French populism reflects a new social faultline
法國民粹主義的復興反映了一種新的社會斷層
With its shuttered fa?ades, narrow streets and shaded main square, this small southern town has a certain Proven-?al charm. It boasts a twice-weekly market, two well-equipped sports halls, a public library and a narrow strip of beach. Yet an intangible air of disappointment hangs over Cogolin. Its poverty rate is well above the national average. Unemployment, at 18%, is nearly twice that of France as a whole. Many of those with jobs belong to the army of workers who repaint, clean, mow and cook at the villas and yachts of nearby Saint-Tropez. In 2014 the town elected a mayor from the xenophobic NationalFront (FN) with 53% of the vote.
裝有百葉窗的外墻，狹窄的街道和陰暗的中央廣場，這個南部小鎮頗有些普羅旺斯的魅力。它值得自豪的東西包括一周兩次的集市，兩個設備齊全的體育館，一個公共圖書館以及一處狹長的海灘。然而，一種無形的失望氣氛彌漫在Cogolin的上空。其貧困率遠高于全國平均水平。失業率達到了18％，幾乎法國整體水平的兩倍。許多有工作的人屬于在圣特羅佩茲附近別墅或游艇上從業大軍中的一員，從事重新粉刷，清潔，修剪和烹飪等職業。 2014年，該鎮選出一位新市長。他來自排外的國民陣線（FN），得票率為53％。（注：圣特羅佩茲是法國南部的城市,是畫家、作家、特別是演員匯集的地方)
Nearly three years into his term, Marc Etienne Lansade embodies the new-look FN. There are no shaven heads to be found at the town hall. With his monogrammed shirts and leather loafers, this former property developer from a chic suburb of Paris talks at length of his plans to develop Cogolin’s marina. He has taken on debt, partly to pay for extra local policemen. He is unapologetic about favouring expressions of Roman Catholic identity, such as a Christmas nativity scene in the town hall, dismissing critics of such gestures as “leftist Islamophiles”.He may come across as a hard-right deal-maker, but not as a thug.
他上任已近三年，Marc Etienne Lansade呈現出國民陣線的新氣象。市政廳里找不到剃光頭的人。穿著印有文字的襯衫和皮革便鞋，來自時髦的巴黎郊區的這位前房地產開發商終于談起了開發Cogolin游艇碼頭的計劃。他舉了債，部分是為了給額外的當地警察支付薪水。他對偏愛羅馬天主教身份沒有絲毫的悔意，例如市政廳里的圣誕場景.有人批評這是“左派親伊斯蘭”行為，但他不予理會。駁斥為對這種手勢的批評，如“左派伊斯蘭教徒”。他可能給人留下極右商人的印象，而不是一個暴徒。
Local opponents accuse him of financing his development plans in “opaque” ways and an “ideological” hostility to cultural diversity, such as North African songs?or dances in schools. The voters, though,seem undeterred. The year after they elected?Mr Lansade, 54% of voters in Cogolin backed the FN candidate, Marion Maré-chal-Le Pen, niece of Marine Le Pen, the FN’s leader, at regional elections. And a?great many will vote for Ms Le Pen herselfin the first round of the forthcoming presidentialelection on April 23rd.
當地反對者指責他為其開發計劃融資的手段不夠光明磊落，而且對文化多樣性有“意識形態”敵意，比如學校的北非歌曲或舞蹈。 但是，選民似乎沒有被嚇到。 在他們選舉Lansade為市長后的第二年，Cogolin54％的選民在地區選舉中選擇支持國民陣線候選人MarionMaré-chal-Le Pen，她是國民陣線領導人Marine Le Pen的侄女。 在即將舉行的4月23日總統選舉第一輪投票中相當多的選民將投票給勒龐女士本人。
No precedents for the president
沒有先例的總統大選
At a Cogolin bakery where Algerian pastries?are nestled next to the baguettes, a middle-aged woman, asked about her?country’s politicians, says she has “a real desire to kick them all up the backside”.?Over the past few months almost all the most prominent of them, save Ms Le Pen,have thus been kicked. In the centre-right primary, held in November, voters rejected?an ex-president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and an ex-prime minister, Alain Juppé. In January’s?Socialist primary they turfed out another ex-prime minister, Manuel Valls.?They would have rejected Fran?ois Hollande,too, had he not already bowed out of the race—an unprecedented move for a sitting French president.
在一家Cogolin面包店，阿爾及利亞甜點緊挨著放在法國長面包旁邊，一個中年女子，被問及法國的政治家們，她說，“真想踢他們的屁股”。 在過去幾個月里，幾乎所有最杰出的人物，除了Le Pen，就這樣被排斥。 在11月舉行的中右初選，選民拒絕了前總統尼古拉斯·薩科齊和前總理阿蘭·朱佩。 在1月的社會黨初選衷，他們趕走了另一位前總理曼努埃爾·瓦爾斯。 如果弗朗索瓦·奧朗德沒有退出競選，他們也會抵制他，對于在任總統來說，這是前所未有的舉動。
This bonfire of the elites has left France with a slate of candidates all but one of?whom were not considered serious contenders for any party’s nomination six?months ago. One of them, Emmanuel Macron,a former Socialist economy minister, is?a candidate without the backing of an established party but with a real chance of?victory, another unprecedented development.Beno?t Hamon, the Socialist Party’s?candidate, is a former backbench rebel against his own party. The centre-right?nominee, Fran?ois Fillon, will be put under formal investigation on March 15th accused?of abusing his office to pay unearned salaries to his family; nevertheless, he says?he will fight on.
篝火燃燒后，灰燼中只給法國留下了幾個精英的殘渣。六個月前，對任何政黨的提名來說，除一人之外，他們中沒人被認為是真正的競爭者。 舉個例子，前社會黨經濟部長，埃馬紐埃爾·麥克龍（Emmanuel Macron），沒有任何確定的黨派支持，卻有取勝的切實可能性。這是另一個前所未有的發展。 社會黨候選人貝諾瓦·哈蒙（Beno?t Hamon）是他自己黨派的背叛者。 中右翼候選人Fran?ois Fillon將于3月15日接受正式調查，他被控濫用職權向家人支付不勞而獲的酬勞; 但是，他說會繼續戰斗下去。
And then there is Ms Le Pen. The populist leader, who has run the FN since 2011,?leads The Economist’s poll of polls. There is a good?chance that she will come top in the first round of the election—again, something?for which there is no precedent. (When her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, the FN’s founder?and former leader, got into the second round in 2002 it was as the first-round runner-up,?with just 17% of the vote). For the other candidates the election has become?a race to stand against her in the second round on May 7th, and the campaign a test?of the ability of mainstream politicians to shape a response to renascent nationalism.
接下來是Le Pen女士。作為民粹主義領導人，她自2011年以來一直主持運作國民陣線。在“經濟學人”關于投票的民意調查中一直處于領先位置。 她很可能會在第一輪選舉中登頂，這又是沒有先例的事情。（當她的父親，國民陣線創始人和前領導人Jean-Marie Le Pen，在2002年第二輪競選時，他是以首輪第二位的身份進入的，只獲得了17％的選票）。 對于其他候選人來說，選舉已然成為在5月7日第二輪競選對抗她的比賽，同時也變成對主流政治人物就復興民族主義形成回應的能力測試。
Ms Le Pen will find it difficult to win in the second round; as yet, no poll has shown her doing so. One recently found her losing to Mr Macron by 42% to 58%; against Mr Fillon she does a bit better. But the margins leave little room for complacency. She is a strong campaigner, with a well organised party. Mr Macron, for all that he is fighting an insurgent campaign, can be painted as a very establishment?character—of the sort who came off much?worse in the votes for Brexit and Donald?Trump than elite opinion expected. Many?voters remain undecided, and more may?still be biddable. Over two-fifths of those?who have made a choice admit that they?may yet change it.
但是勒龐女士將很難在第二輪獲勝; 至今沒有民意調查顯示她能辦得到。 最新的調查結果顯示，她將以42％比58％輸給馬克龍先生; 對菲永先生她做的更好一點。，但也領先很少，沒有留下多少自滿放松的空間。她是一個很強的競爭者，而且有高度組織的政黨助陣。 雖然馬克龍先生在為顛覆式競選做努力，他可以被描繪成一個非常有確定性格的人 - 這種人在英國退歐公投和唐納德.特朗普競選中的表現比精英預期糟糕得多。 許多選民仍然猶豫未決，更多的選民仍然可以爭取。 超過五分之二的人雖然做出了選擇，但承認還有可能做出改變。
Nicolas Baverez, a lawyer and commentator, compares France’s mood to that of 1930, when fascism was on the rise, or even 1789, the eve of the French revolution. In the parquet-floored salons of Paris, conversation readily turns to such sombre parts of history. “The historian in me is very pessimistic,” says Dominique Mo?si, of the Institut Montaigne, a think-tank, “because I know that these things can happen.”
律師和評論家尼古拉斯·巴韋雷斯（Nicolas Baverez）將目前法國的氣氛與1930年法西斯主義上升階段的情形，甚至與1789年法國大革命前夕的情況進行了對比。在巴黎的鑲木地板沙龍里，談話內容很容易轉向這些沉重的歷史片段。 “我心里的歷史學家非常悲觀”，在Montaigne研究所（一家智庫）工作的Dominique Mo?si說，“因為我知道這種事會發生。”
The election of Ms Le Pen would not only bring to power a leader who has compared Muslims praying in the street to the Nazi occupation of France. It would prompt a crisis of government: the FN is highly unlikely to win a majority in June’s legislative elections, even if she is president. And it would threaten the future of Europe. Ms Le Pen has promised to abandon the euro in favour of a new franc and to hold a referendum on leaving the EU within her first six months (though she would need parliamentary approval to do so). The EU can survive the loss of Britain; the loss of France would bring the project that has underpinned the European order for the past 60 years to a close.
勒龐女士的當選不僅意味著給于這個把街道上祈禱的穆斯林與納粹占領法國相提并論的領導人以權力，還將引發政府危機。國民陣線不大可能在6月的立法選舉中贏得多數，即便她成功當選總統。這將對歐洲的未來構成威脅。 勒龐女士承諾放棄歐元，支持使用新法郎，并打算在她當選的前六個月內舉行關于脫離歐盟的全民公投（盡管她需要獲得議會批準才能實施）。失去英國，歐盟還可以生存;法國的離去將使這個在過去60年里一直支撐著歐洲秩序的設計走向終點。
瑪麗娜·勒龐(Marine Le Pen，1968年8月5日- )，是前法國"國民陣線"主席老勒龐(讓·馬利·勒龐)之女，法國極右翼政黨"國民陣線"領導人。有"法國最危險女人"之稱。2017年2月5日，發表競選綱領演講，正式開啟競選征程。-360百科，侵刪。
The new geography puts all in doubt
新地理令人心生疑竇
In some ways, the emergence of Ms Le Pen matches a pattern of insurgent populism across Western liberal democracies. A fear of job losses due to automation and deindustrialisation; a backlash against immigration; a distrust of self-serving political elites; the echo-chamber effect of information spread on social media: common factors helping populist political movements elsewhere have touched France, too.
某種程度上，勒龐女士的出現與西方自由民主國家的民粹主義興起的模式是一致的。對自動化和后工業化原因造成工作減少的擔憂;抵制移民; 對自私自利政治精英的不信任; 社交媒體上信息傳播的回聲室效應：那些幫助民粹主義政治運動在他處興起的共性因素如今也觸及到了法國。
名詞解釋：回聲室效應在媒體上是指在一個相對封閉的環境上，一些意見相近的聲音不斷重復，并以夸張或其他扭曲形式重復，令到處于相對封閉環境中的大多數人認為這些扭曲的故事就是事實的全部。-360百科，侵刪。
Ms Le Pen’s support, like support for Mr Trump and Brexit, is well correlated with education. Only 8% of French citizens with a degree voted FN in 2014; 41% of those without a high-school diploma did. As with Mr Trump, men are better disposed to the FN than women. Ms Le Pen, like Mr Trump, is particularly popular in old industrial towns from which jobs and confidence have drained away, taking with them faith in parties of the left.
支持勒龐女士，如同支持Trump和英國脫歐公投一樣，與教育程度密切相關。 2014年，只有8％的擁有學位的法國公民投票給國民陣線; 沒有高中文憑的人有41％投給了國民陣線。和特朗普先生的情形一樣，男人比女人更傾向于投票給國民陣線。 勒龐女士和特朗普一樣，在老工業城鎮特別受歡迎。在那里工作和信心已經流失，所以他們對左派政黨充滿信任。
Perhaps the most distinctive aspect of the FN vote, though, is the faultline it reveals between the country’s cosmopolitan cities, at ease with globalisation, and those in-between places where farmland gives way to retail sprawl and a sense of neglect. Between 2006 and 2011, the number of jobs in 13 big French cities—Lyon, Marseille, Toulouse, Lille, Bordeaux, Nantes, Nice, Strasbourg, Rennes, Grenoble, Rouen, Montpellier and Toulon—increased on average by 5%. In France as a whole, jobs were lost. These dynamic cities, with their elegant pedestrian centres, tech hubs and gourmet food, vote for the left (Lyon, Nantes, Rennes), the greens (Grenoble) or the centre-right (Bordeaux). They are not immune to France’s feeling of being fed up; in April and May, many of them may opt for Mr Macron. But none registers a strong vote for the FN.
也許國民陣線得票的最與眾不同之處在于它所揭示出的斷層線。法國的國際大都市，欣然了接受全球化。而大都市之間的那些地方，農田讓位于零售擴張和被忽視的感覺。 2006年至2011年間，法國13個城市-里昂，馬賽，圖盧茲，里爾，波爾多，南特，尼斯，斯特拉斯堡，雷恩，格勒諾布爾，魯昂，蒙彼利埃和土倫的工作崗位平均增加了5％。而作為整體，法國的工作在流失。這些充滿活力，有著頗為講究的步行中心，技術中心和美食的大城市，投票選舉左派（里昂，南特，雷恩），綠黨（格勒諾布爾）或中右派（波爾多）。他們對法國被喂飽的感覺沒有免疫能力; 在4月和5月，他們中的許多人可能選擇馬克龍先生。但沒有人為國民陣線登記，堅定地投票給他們。
Around them, though, is what Christophe Guilluy, a geographer, calls “peripheral France”. This is the world of lost employers like the Lejaby lingerie factory in Bellegarde-sur-Valserine, in the foothills of the Alps, or the Moulinex factory in Alen?on, in southern Normandy. It is a world where Uber, bike-share schemes and coworking spaces are nowhere to be found, and where people sense that globalisation has passed them by. It is a world where the FN is on the rise.
然而，城市之間就是地理學家Christophe Guilluy所說的“法國周邊”。如同阿爾卑斯山腳下的Bellegarde-sur-Valserine的Lejaby女士內衣工廠，或諾曼底南部Alen?on的Moulinex工廠一樣，這是一個失敗雇主主的世界；這是一個優步，共享單車計劃和共享工作空間無跡可尋的世界；這是人們感覺全球化從他們身邊路過的世界；這是一個國民陣線力量正在冉冉上升的世界 。
