MIGRATION
移民

You don't have to be rich
財富不能主宰一切

From The Economist print edition
摘自《經濟學人》印刷版

Developing countries attract migrants too
發展中國家也在吸引著移民

THE complaints sound familiar. Foreigners steal our jobs. Aliens cause a rise in crime. The corrupt interior ministry cannot cope. The border is ineffective and deporting illegal migrants does not work: removed by train, they return on foot. Outsiders put a strain on housing, especially for the poor, and on hospitals and schools. But employers do not care: farmers want cheap labour, and rich families need skilful foreign gardeners and housekeepers。
抱怨已是耳熟能詳。外國人偷走了我們的工作，引發了犯罪率上升。國內腐敗的政府部門無法應對。邊界是形同擺設，驅逐非法移民不能奏效：非法移民坐火車被驅回，便以步行重新再來。外來人員在住房（尤其是窮人的住房），醫院和學校方面帶來巨大壓力。但雇主卻不在意：農民需要廉價勞工，富裕家庭需要嫻熟的外國花匠和管家。

中國是世界發達國家移民的主要來源

Residents of Soweto, or other urban areas in South Africa, are likely to grumble about foreigners in the same way as in rich countries. The makwerekwere, as African foreigners are insultingly known, are attracted by South Africa's relative wealth. Some Tanzanians talk longingly of Johannesburg as “Little London”. One in four Little Londoners may now be a foreigner. Zimbabwean teachers, forced out by hunger and repression, work as security guards and shop assistants. Congolese lawyers toil as waiters and chefs.
同富國的做法一樣，索韋托或南非部分城鎮區的居民或許也會對外國人說三道四。南非一些較富地區正吸引makwerekwere（對非洲外來移民的蔑稱）。一些坦桑尼亞人熱切地把約翰內斯堡稱為"小倫敦"。現在或許有1/4的小倫敦人是外國人。被饑餓和壓迫驅逐在外的津巴布韋教師們做著保安和店員的工作。剛果律師在服務員和廚師的職位上勞碌著。

In 2005 two World Bank researchers, Mr Ratha and William Shaw, estimated that two in five migrants—about 78m people—were outside rich countries. But who in the poor world is counting? South Africa's government does not know how many foreigners it has (2m? 5m? more?). Mexico, India or Turkey cannot be sure either. Total numbers are skewed by those displaced by the collapse of the Soviet Union or who became de facto migrants when borders moved.
2005年，世界銀行兩位的調研人員拉特和威廉-肖恩估計，2/5的移民（約7800萬）身處富國之外。但誰又會在窮國進行計算呢？南非政府不知道國內有多少外來人員（200萬？500萬？還是更多？）。墨西哥，印度或土耳就更不確定了。蘇聯垮臺所造成的流動人員，或邊界移動所帶來的實際移民，這都使人口總數受到影響。

Ms Newland of the Migration Policy Institute in Washington, DC, says the flows between poor and mid-income countries are huge but “desperately understudied”. One reason why outsiders pay little attention is that most poor migrants do not move far. Roughly half of all South-East Asian migrants are thought to have remained in the neighbourhood, and nearly two-thirds of migrants from eastern Europe and Central Asia have stayed in their own region. Nearly 70% of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa remain on their continent. West African countries do not limit immigration from their neighbours, so lots of people cross borders, for example from Ghana to oil-rich Nigeria.
華盛頓移民政策研究所的紐蘭德女士表示，貧窮和中等收入國家的移民浪潮規模龐大，但又"絕對可以理解"。移民不為外界所關注的一個原因就在于大多數貧困移民不會走遠。將近一半的東南亞移民被認為是在鄰國流動，約占2/3的東歐和中亞移民會在本洲區域流動。近七成撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲地區的移民仍在非洲大陸流動。西非國家對來自鄰國的移民不加限制，這引發了大量人群跨越邊界，涌入他國。例如，從加納到石油豐富的尼日利亞。

Some middle-income countries, such as Morocco, Mexico, Turkey and Libya, are well-trodden transit routes with migrant populations of their own. A senior civil servant in Morocco laments that his country is “between the hammer and the anvil” of Africa and Europe. Others, like India, Russia, South Africa and Argentina, are destinations in their own right. With all this come the same opportunities and threats as in the rich world. Chile imports doctors and maids from Peru, raising worries about a brain drain. Zambians fret about an invasion by Chinese, whose numbers in Africa are said to be between 80,000 to 400,000, many in oil-rich countries such as Sudan, Nigeria and Angola.
一些中等收入國家，如摩洛哥，墨西哥，土耳其和利比亞，就是人來人往（包括本國人）的轉運路線。摩洛哥一位資深文職官員不無惋惜地表示，自己的國家是身處非洲和歐洲的"錘砧之間"。另一些國家，如印度，俄羅斯，南非和阿根廷，憑借自身優勢成為移民終點站。所有這一切都同富國所面臨的機遇和威脅完全相同。智利由秘魯引入大量醫生和女傭，這已引發了人們對人才外流的擔憂。贊比亞人對中國人（據說在非洲有8-40萬）的涌入焦慮不安。在盛產石油的國家，如蘇丹，尼日利亞和安哥拉，也可看到大量中國人的身影。

Remittances from one low-income country to another probably help to cut poverty. A 2006 study of 4,700 households by the Southern African Migration Project found that 40% of Zimbabwean households received some money from this source. How much is hard to measure, but a World Bank estimate for 2006 gives a range for remittances among poor countries of $17 billion-55 billion.
低收入國家相互間的匯款可能有助于消除貧窮。2006年，在對4700戶家庭調研后，南非移民計劃署發現40％的津巴布韋家庭通過匯款獲得一些錢財。目前，數目尚難以衡量，但據世界銀行的估計，貧窮國家于2006年所收款項的范圍在170-550億美元之間。

Some middle-income countries are extraordinarily welcoming. Venezuela, awash with oil revenues, even allows Colombians to use its social-welfare system. Argentina has lifted most restrictions on immigration from South America, again guaranteeing access to public health and education, even for illegal migrants. But many other countries show signs of xenophobia. On one occasion a newspaper in Morocco gave warning that “black locusts”—African migrants—were invading. Russian authorities, especially in Moscow, regularly throw out traders from Georgia and elsewhere in the Caucasus. Libya occasionally expels African migrants.
一些中等收入國家對移民大力歡迎。大發石油橫財的委內瑞拉甚至允許哥倫比亞人享有該國的社會福利體制。阿根廷對南美國家的移民解除了最大限制，再次承諾他們（甚至包含非法移民）享有公共醫療權和接受教育的權利。但一些國家卻有仇外的心理。摩洛哥的某家報紙曾發出了"黑色蝗蟲"（非洲移民）正在入侵的警告。俄羅斯當局，尤其在莫斯科，時常把來自格魯吉亞和高加索地區的商人驅逐出境。利比亞也偶爾會驅趕非洲移民。

Many poor people are drawn to somewhat less poor countries in the hope of finding work, just as they are to rich countries. But with war, repression and economic collapse, push factors are much stronger in the poor world. The invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the violence since, has uprooted more than 4m Iraqis. Some 95% of them have remained in the Middle East, including 2m in hard-pressed Jordan and Syria. Sweden, with an admirable history of taking in refugees, has welcomed 23,600 Iraqis, but few other rich countries have followed suit. Some of the displaced are beginning to return home. Since the Taliban were booted from power in 2001, Afghanistan has seen the voluntary return of at least 3.2m people from Pakistan, Iran and elsewhere.
許多窮人身懷找份工作的夢想被吸引到不甚貧困的國家，這同他們前往富國的目的基本相同。但由于戰爭，壓迫和經濟崩潰，這些推動因素在貧窮國家愈演愈烈。在2003年入侵伊拉克以來，暴力活動已令400萬多伊拉克人背井離鄉。大約有95％的伊拉克人留在中東，其中有200萬置身處境困難的約旦和敘利亞。在收留難民上，瑞典國家有著的令人敬佩的歷史傳統。盡管瑞典才安置23600伊拉克人，但少數富國也已在紛紛跟進中。一些流離失所者已開始返回家園。自從塔利班政權于2001年被推翻后，阿富汗已至少有320萬人從巴基斯坦，伊朗和其他國家自愿返鄉。

Climate of fear
令人憂慮的氣候變化

Could a changing climate cause similarly big ebbs and flows? Scientists agree that average temperatures are likely to rise significantly by the end of this century. Rainfall patterns are already shifting. Those in marginal areas, for example on the edges of deserts, will suffer most, along with those in countries with the least resources to adapt. The sea is also rising, which might mean floods on vulnerable coasts. Some 12% of Africa's urban population, and 18% of Asia's, live in low-lying coastal zones and may be exposed to extreme weather or floods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested in 2007 that millions may face water shortages, hunger and flooding as a result of climate shifts. Some would migrate, although probably over a period of time.
氣候變化是否同樣會引起移民浪潮大起大落？科學家認為，到本世紀末，全球平均氣溫可能會顯著上升。降雨型態已在轉變。隨著一些國家可用資源是急速減少，那些邊緣地帶（沙漠邊緣）的人群將深受其害。海平面也在不斷上升，這在易受損害的海岸線可能就意味著洪澇災害。約占12％的非洲城市居民和18％的亞洲的城市居民，生活在地勢低洼的沿海地區，同時也可能會遭受極端天氣或洪澇災害。政府間氣候變化專門委員會于2007年認為：由于氣候的變化，數百萬人可能將面臨缺水，饑餓和洪水等問題。有些人會遠走他鄉，盡管可能需要一段時間。

Environmental change has already set off some migration. Because the Sahel region gets much less rain than it did a century ago, farmers in Mali are moving to the cities. According to the UN Environment Programme, over the past four decades the desert in Sudan has crept south by about 100km and forests have disappeared. Rainfall in north Darfur, in Sudan, has dropped by a third over the past 80 years.
環境變化已開始引發部分人口遷移。由于撒赫耳(Sahel)地區的降雨量比一個世紀前偏少許多，生活在馬里的農民們不得不向城市遷移著。據聯合國環境計劃署的統計來看，蘇丹境內的沙漠在過去40年已向南延伸了約100公里，森林已消失。蘇丹達爾富爾地區北部的降雨量在過去80年減少了1/3。

All this has displaced people and, some believe, encouraged war. Morocco's government is anxious about it. “There is a direct impact on migration. You see people leaving sub-Saharan Africa in search of more habitable land,” says Mr Ameur, the minister for Moroccans abroad. Abdelhay Moudden, a migration expert in Rabat, suggests that the first to leave may be struggling farmers: “If the urban economy cannot absorb them, then it may also push international migration.”
由于上述原因，人口被迫轉移，戰爭受到滋長（有人對此深信不已）。摩洛哥政府對此是憂慮忡忡。摩洛哥外務部長Ameur表示："這對移民有直接影響。你會看到人們正在離開撒哈拉以南的非洲，去尋找更多的居住之地。"拉巴特的移民專家Abdelhay Moudden認為首先離開的是為生活苦苦掙扎的農民："如果城市的經濟狀況無法接受他們，這就有可能把他們推向通往國際移民的梁山之路"

A 2005 report by the Institute for Environment and Human Security in Bonn suggested that rising seas and extreme weather, among other things, could uproot 150m people by 2050. Ms Newland of the Migration Policy Institute cautions against talking up the figures, but thinks that if drought and rising temperatures cause crop yields to fall in, say, the Sahel, they will probably encourage migration. If climate change were to cause wars or spread disease, that could compound the effects. Another reason, then, to switch to low-energy light bulbs.
位于波恩的環境與人類安全研究所在2005年發布的一份報告顯示，到2050年，上升的海平面和極端天氣等因素會使1.5億人背井離鄉。移民政策研究所的紐蘭德女士，告誡不要對數字過于夸大。但她認為，如果干旱和上升的氣溫造成農作物產量下降（譬如在撒赫耳地區），那將可能會助長人口遷移。如果氣候變化將引發戰爭或者傳播疾病，那將引發更為復雜的后果。這也要是改用低能耗燈泡的令一個原因。