Some of these are probably apocryphal, but making predictions about the limits of technology is really hard:
也許以下部分預(yù)言的真實(shí)性有待考證，但是坦白說，要準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測未來技術(shù)給現(xiàn)實(shí)生活帶來的變革，確實(shí)很困難。
Space travel is utter bilge. - Dr. Richard van der Reit Wooley, space advisor to the British government, 1956
“太空旅行就是一個(gè)天大的笑話。” - Richard van der Relt Wooley博士，英國政府太空技術(shù)顧問，1956
Computers in the future may...perhaps only weigh 1.5 tons. - Popular Mechanics, 1949
“未來的計(jì)算機(jī)，重量也許能減輕到1.5噸。”- 大眾機(jī)械師（美國著名科普雜志），1949
X-rays are a hoax. - Lord Kelvin, ca. 1900
“X射線就是一個(gè)騙局。” - Kelvin勛爵（著名量子物理學(xué)家），1900
I confess that in 1901 I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for fifty years. Two years later we ourselves made flights. This demonstration of my impotence as a prophet gave me such a shock that ever since I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions. - Wilbur Wright, 1908
“我承認(rèn)，在1901年我對(duì)我的兄弟Orville說過，我覺得50年內(nèi)人類不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)飛行。而僅僅2年之后，我們自己實(shí)現(xiàn)了飛行。自此之后，我再也不相信自己的任何預(yù)言。同時(shí)，也不相信其它任何人做出的預(yù)言。” - Wilbur Wright（萊特兄弟中的哥哥），1908
To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth--all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances. - Lee deForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1957
“把一個(gè)人裝進(jìn)一個(gè)多級(jí)的火箭內(nèi)，然后彈射到月球的控制重力區(qū)內(nèi)。使得宇航員能夠進(jìn)行科學(xué)實(shí)驗(yàn)，或者太空漫步，最后再返回地球。所有這些都只不過是Jules Verne（法國著名小說家，詩人，劇作家）科幻小說里描述的情節(jié)而已。”我有足夠的經(jīng)驗(yàn)可以負(fù)責(zé)任的說，這類的人工月球旅行，無論在技術(shù)發(fā)展到何種情況下，都不可能被實(shí)現(xiàn)。” - Lee deForest，真空管發(fā)明人，1957
There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will. - Albert Einstein, 1932
“沒有一丁點(diǎn)的跡象表明，人們能夠掌握核能。因?yàn)檫@意味著原子結(jié)構(gòu)可以被隨意打碎。” - Albert Einstein（不解釋），1932
That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives. - Admiral William Leahy to President Truman
“這是人類犯過的最愚蠢的一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤。炸彈將無法被熄滅，我以一個(gè)炸彈專家的身份發(fā)言。” - Admiral William Leahy（二戰(zhàn)期間美國海軍軍官）對(duì)杜魯門總統(tǒng)說
Anyone who expects a source of power from the transformation of these atoms is talking moonshine. - Ernest Rutherford, 1933
“任何想要從原子的裂變中獲取能量的想法，都是異想天開。” - Ernest Rutherford（核物理之父），1933
The abolishment of pain in surgery is a chimera. It is absurd to go on seeking it... Knife and pain are two words in surgery that must forever be associated in the consciousness of the patient. - Dr. Alfred Velpeaum, French surgeon, 1839
“任何與無痛手術(shù)有關(guān)的想法都是妄想，任何有關(guān)這個(gè)方向的探索也是荒唐的。患者們將意識(shí)到手術(shù)刀和疼痛，將永遠(yuǎn)是手術(shù)中必不可少的兩個(gè)元素。” - Alfred Velpeaum博士，法國外科醫(yī)生，1839
Bitcoin is definitely going to be trading at $10,000 or more and in wide use by the end of 2014. - Many otherwise smart people, November of 2013
“到2014年年底之前，比特幣必將被大規(guī)模使用，而且單位交易價(jià)格將超過1萬美金。” - 那些自以為是的聰明人，11月，2013
Superhuman machine intelligence is prima facie ridiculous. - Many otherwise smart people, 2015
“超級(jí)人工智能是一個(gè)顯而易見的笑話。” - 那些自以為是的聰明人，2015
“當(dāng)然，如果把時(shí)間長度拉到無限長，那么人們做出的任何預(yù)測都會(huì)是錯(cuò)的。” - STOREIS
