想必考了10月SAT考試的大部分同學都收到了自己這次SAT的成績單，無論考得如何，無論你接下來是直接準備提前錄取，還是準備繼續征戰SAT，一切都會是新的開始。閱讀和數學的成績無論好壞或許還在大家的預料之中，這次SAT Essay的成績一定讓大家刮目相看。曾經的8/8/7光輝戰績，為何到了今年5月和10月亞太會如此“難以置信”？

原因有這樣幾個：

1. CB對亞太地區寫作壓分這件事情是肯定的。

2. 考試對批判性思維的考察越來越嚴謹，如果只是像以前“照葫蘆畫瓢”硬套模版肯定是不行的。（但是可惜的是有不少同學還是走不出硬套模版的思路，總之，就是練習的還不夠多，準備還不夠充分。）

3. 批判性思維的考試本就是一個價值判斷，所以存在一定的主觀性，也就是會有不少不確定因素，例如考官有沒有耐心看完你的文章等等。

那下面我們就直接進入正題，這次10月7日的寫作到底應該如何分析才能拿到8/8/8？（如下分析是Florence參考了一些同學8/8/8的滿分范文，總結出來的幾個分析思路，供大家參考。如有疑問，歡迎討論。）

考試原文如下：

Lighten up, Sir David. Our wildlife is safe

By Matt Ridley Sep. 12, 2013, The Times

1.Publicising his imminent new series about the evolution of animals, Sir David Attenborough said in an interview this week that he thought a reduction in human population during this century is impossible and “we’re lucky to be living when we are, because things are going to get worse”. People will look back in another 100 years “at a world that was less crowded, full of natural wonders, and healthier”.

2.His is a common view and one I used to share. He longs for people to enjoy the open spaces and abundant herds of game that he has been fortunate enough to see. To that end he thinks it vital that there should be fewer of us.

3.Ever so politely, I would now passionately disagree with the two premises of his argument. It’s actually quite likely, rather than impossible, that population will be falling by the end of this century and it is also quite likely that the people alive then will have lots more wilderness to explore and wildlife to admire than today.

4.The rate at which world population grows has roughly halved from more than 2 per cent a year in the 1960s to roughly 1 per cent a year now. Even the total number of people added to the annual population has been dropping for nearly 30 years. If those declines continue, they will hit zero in about 2070 — not much more than 50 years from now. In recent decades the birth rate has fallen in every part of the world. Fertility in Bangladesh has fallen from nearly 7 children per woman in the 1960s to just over 2 today; Kenya from 8 to 4.5; Brazil 5.7 to 1.8; Iran 6.8 to 1.9; Ireland 3.9 to 2…

5.Europe, Asia and Latin America have already gone through this transition and most countries are producing babies at or below replacement rate of 2.2 per woman, at which population stabilises (without immigration). Africa, for so long written off as a special (basket) case, is following suit almost exactly. For this reason alone, I suspect the world population will stop growing and begin to shrink even earlier than 2070 and almost certainly within this century. But even if it does not, there is good reason to reassure Sir David that our great grandchildren will have more wildlife to look at than he has had.

6.An ingenious study by scientists at Rockefeller University in New York has recently calculated that even with population continuing to grow, and even with people eating more food and especially more meat, we have almost certainly already passed “peak farmland”, because of the rate at which fertilisers are improving yields. (Or we would have done if not for biofuels projects.) We will feed nine or ten billion people in 2070 from a considerably smaller acreage than we need to feed seven billion today.

7.Land sparing is already occurring on a grand scale. Forest cover is increasing in many parts of the world, from Scotland to Bangladesh. Wildlife populations are booming in Europe (deer, bears, boar, otters), in the polar regions (walrus, seals, penguins, whales) and North America (turkeys, coyotes, bison, geese) and this is happening fastest in the richest countries. According to one recent report, animal populations grew by 6 per cent in Europe, North America and Northern Asia between 1970 and 2012, while shrinking in tropical regions. There is almost a perfect correlation between the severity of conservation problems and poverty, because the richer people get, the less they try to live off the land and compete with nature — the less they seek bushmeat and charcoal from the forest.

8.Once again, Africa may spring a pleasant surprise. Over the past four decades agricultural yields in Africa hardly budged while they doubled or quadrupled in most of Asia. That is almost entirely down to a dearth of fertiliser and it is beginning to change. If African yields were to rise, the acreage devoted to farmland globally would start to fall even faster, releasing more and more land for “re-wilding”. The great herds and flocks that so delight Sir David would reassemble in more and more places. The happy conclusion is that making people better off and making nature better off are not in opposition; they go hand in hand.

我們從考試要求出發，仍然是從三個角度來探討這篇文章的寫作手法。第一從邏輯（reasoning）、第二從感情鋪墊（appeal to emotion）、第三在從可信度（evidence）上著手。今天我們專門來講一下說理reasoning如何分析。

這篇文章的邏輯非常清晰，要比以前201605亞太講Air conditioning還有201610北美講Library這兩篇文章都要明顯。

作者在第1-2段就開門見山提出他想要反駁的觀點：

Premises：

1. “a reduction in human population during this century is impossible.”(Para.1)

2. To preserve the “opening spaces” for wilderness.(Para. 2 paraphrasing)

Conclusion：

“there should be fewer of us.”(Para 2)

隨后作者在第3段和第5段就明確提出自己非常有針對性的觀點：

Premises：

1. “population will be falling by the end of this century”(以此反駁了上述的Premise 1)

2. Even if the population keeps growing, “our great grandchildren” will still see more wildlife. (以此反駁了上述Premise 2)

Conclusion：

Human population will not have an adverse effect on natural environment in the future.

接下來我們需要做的事情就是看作者在文中是如何support或者demonstrate他的兩個前提的。(友情提醒：注意support和demonstrate的區別)

Premise 1（population falling）：

作者是通過第4－5段舉例大量證據來demonstrate這個前提的。證據的可信度我們可以另起一段再具體分析。

Premise 2（more wilderness）：

作者這里運用說理來證明他的觀點，為前提2又提供了一個新的理由來支持，在第6段作者申明“because of the rate at which fertilizers are improving yields.”而這個命題的True or False與否作者是想通過University research來證明的。

其次，作者又運用大量舉例在繼續證明這個前提，而這次的大量舉例用到了“二分法”。首先作者列舉了“不少富有國家”的野外土地增加，接著作者又特地再次提到非洲，而非洲通過我們的常識會認定其為“并不富有的國家”。因此，我們可以這樣分析：

Premises:

1）The richer people get, the less they conquer and interfere in the wilderness.(Para.7 paraphrase)[這個點作者其實沒有提供進一步證據證明，讀者需要通過常識來判斷這個命題的真假。]

2）The richer countries have encountered more wild lands.(Para. 7 paraphrase)[這個點作者通過整段para. 7舉例evidence證明]

3）If the countries are provided sufficient fertilizers, Africa, the representative of poorer countries, will not encounter depletion of forests. [這個點作者通過整段para 8說理reason證明]

Conclusion:

Our offspring will still see more wildlife.

通過這樣的分析，想必大家心中對這篇文章的邏輯框架有了更清晰的了解。接下來，我們來看一下一段Appeal to logos應該如何寫作：

［一開始提出自己的論點］Throughout the whole article, the author establishes a sound argument to rebut David Attenborough’s claim, especially targeting his two premises presented at the beginning of the passage that “a reduction in human population during this century is impossible” and that reduction of population is essential for maintaining “the open spaces and abundant herds of game”.

［說明作者一開始就讓步的意圖］This intentional illustration of the opponents’ groundwork as opening is to win the argumentative manner and endear the audience whose opinion is expected to diverge from the author.

［說明作者如何反駁對手第一個前提］After successfully attracting their attention, Ridley then immediately arranges his solid reasoning to loosen Attenborough’s basement. The author first challenges his first premise–the legitimacy of the despair about reducing human population—with trustworthy evidences in paragraph four: the apparent shrinkages of fertility in different countries tell most of the story.

［說明作者如何反駁對手第二個前提］The author further refutes the continual loss of wilderness under human interference that Attenborough insists as his second premise; this time valid reasoning plays the primary role. The research result from Rockefeller University cited in paragraph six demonstrates that “fertilizers are improving yields”, proving the likelihood of less land to satisfy thousands of months. The author in the last two paragraphs continues to consolidate the possibility in the resilience of natural ranges by logic. On one hand, evidence has shown that rich countries have already sparing their forest cover, breeding more animals. On the other hand, the author skillfully employs a persuasive assumption that even the poor countries, as represented by Africa, can “release more and more land” if depletion of fertilizer begins to change. This persuasion about both rich and poor countries finally wipes out the reader’s doubt about Ridley’s refutation against Attenborough.

[最后小結全段]In short, the step-by-step logic fueled up with abundant evidence firmly convinces the reader that the following centuries promise a brilliant future for natural environment.

在看大家的反饋作文的時候，Florence總結出來了幾個大家常犯的錯誤，在這里提醒一下各位考生。

總結問題：

1. 分不清楚哪里是evidence哪里是argument？這兩個概念是批判性思維的基礎，大家一定要搞清。

2. 不會去找conclusion的premise。前提和結論又是兩個基礎概念，要不斷問自己，為什么作者說這句話是true的，文章有沒有其他的claim讓這句話成立。

3. deductive reasoning和inductive reasoning的區分比較模糊，雖然考試的時候并不用特地寫明兩者，但是分清兩者對大家的分析會大有幫助。

希望這篇文章對12月份需要去參加考試的同學們有一定的啟發。還有最后一個月也可以臨時抱“佛”腳一下，多計時練習幾篇文章，然后發給各位的寫作老師批改。最后希望大家能夢想成真。

文：陳老師 沃邦教育