Amazon’s empire
The world’s most remarkable firm may eventually be threatened by its own success.
這個(gè)世界上最著名的公司最終也會(huì)被他自己的成功所威脅
AMAZON is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more
亞馬遜是著名的公司。在美國新增線上交易中，書商起家的亞馬遜占到一半以上的份額
than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading
provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as
亞馬遜是云計(jì)算全球領(lǐng)先的供應(yīng)商。這一年亞馬遜將可能花費(fèi)在HBO上的費(fèi)用是電視機(jī)的兩倍以上，一種電纜管道。
much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.
他們自己公司的實(shí)體產(chǎn)品包括電池，杏仁，衣服，還有一種揚(yáng)聲器能連接到虛擬的語音控制助手，能控制其他東西，你的臺(tái)燈，還有灑水器。
Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started.
但是亞馬遜的股東正在的工作建立在現(xiàn)在正起步的前提。
Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index).
自2015年初，亞馬遜公司股價(jià)飆升173%，增速是前兩年的7倍（是標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾指數(shù)的12倍）
With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.
亞馬遜以約4000億美元的市值排名全球第五。
從未有一家公司能在盈利如此有限的情況下，長久維持如此之高的市值，其中92%來自2020年以后的預(yù)期盈利。
That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits.
這是因?yàn)橥顿Y預(yù)期和利潤的大幅度增長，從去年的1360億美元的銷售額攀升到到未來十年5000億元，同時(shí)利潤也有大幅度的增長。
The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America.
這預(yù)期的投資在這里面意味著亞馬遜有可能成為未來比美國任何一家的公司都更有利潤的公司。
Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?
對(duì)這些期盼的懷疑最有力的依據(jù)是：亞馬遜的增長速度必須超過幾乎近代史上的任何一家大公司才能支撐其估值。那么亞馬遜能做到么？
It is easy to tick off some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not standstill.
列舉出一些陷阱是很容易的，競爭對(duì)手不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)停滯不前。
Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up online.If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals.
微軟在云計(jì)算上市有野心的。沃爾瑪?shù)氖杖胍呀?jīng)接近5000億美元，并且還在增強(qiáng)線上業(yè)務(wù)。
如果有任何可能發(fā)生在杰夫貝索斯身上，這個(gè)亞馬遜的創(chuàng)始人，那么這個(gè)空白是異常艱難去填補(bǔ)的。但是引人注目的是這家公司有多大的機(jī)會(huì)去實(shí)現(xiàn)這樣一個(gè)史無前例的目標(biāo)。
A new sort of basket-case
新形式的無用之物
This is largely due to the firm’s unusual approach to two dimensions of corporate life. The first of these is time. In an era when executives routinely whinge about pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon.
這是由于公司兩種不同尋常的態(tài)度對(duì)待公司生活。第一種就是時(shí)間。在這個(gè)時(shí)代，主管們常常抱怨短期目標(biāo)壓力太大，而亞馬遜卻堅(jiān)決地聚焦長遠(yuǎn)目標(biāo)。
Mr Bezos emphasises continual investment to propelits two principal businesses, e-commerce and Amazon WebServices (AWS), its cloud-computing arm.
貝索斯注重持續(xù)的投資來推動(dòng)兩個(gè)主要的業(yè)務(wù)，電子商務(wù)和AWS，即它的云計(jì)算部門。
In e-commerce, the more shoppers Amazon lures, the more retailers and manufacturers want to sell their goods on Amazon.That gives Amazon more cash for new services—such as two-hour shipping and streaming video and music—which entice more shoppers.
在電子商務(wù)上，亞馬遜吸引越多的購物者，那么越多的手工制造者和零售商愿意來亞馬遜上賣他們的東西。這樣就給了亞馬遜更多的現(xiàn)金去創(chuàng)造新的服務(wù)_——例如兩個(gè)小時(shí)就到的物流和流媒體視頻和音樂來吸引跟多的購物者。
Similarly, the more customers use AWS,the more Amazon can invest in new services, which attract more customers. A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant: as developers build services for Alexa, it becomes more useful to consumers,giving developers reason to create yet more services.
相同地，越多的顧客使用AWS，那么亞馬遜可以更多的投資新的服務(wù)來吸引顧客。第三個(gè)良性循環(huán)是圍繞著Alexa的，這個(gè)公司的聲控助手，隨著開發(fā)者建立Alexa的服務(wù)，這對(duì)于顧客更實(shí)用，給開發(fā)者更多的理由去創(chuàng)造更多的服務(wù)。
So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy. The company will be able to keep spending, and its spending will keep making it more powerful. Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record. It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smartphone was a debacle. But the business is starting to crank out cash. Last year cash flow (before investment) was $16bn,more than quadruple the level five years ago.
只要股東保持他們的信心對(duì)這個(gè)模式，亞馬遜的超高估值就類似于能自我實(shí)現(xiàn)的預(yù)言。公司會(huì)有能力去維持支出，同時(shí)這個(gè)支出還能使公司更加強(qiáng)大。他們的信心是靠亞馬遜的業(yè)績維持的。但是亞馬遜也是有失敗的時(shí)候的，它曾嘗試制造智能手機(jī)就是個(gè)失敗例子。但是他的業(yè)務(wù)開始產(chǎn)生大量的現(xiàn)金。上一年的現(xiàn)金流（投資之前）是160億美金，超過前五年的水平的4倍。
If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. The company’s list of current and possible competitors, as described in its annual filings, includes logistics firms, search engines, social networks, food manufacturers and producers of “physical, digital and interactive media of all types”.
如果亞馬遜在時(shí)間框架上的方法是不同尋常的，那么它的業(yè)務(wù)的廣度也是如此。
在公司現(xiàn)在和未來的競爭對(duì)手的列表上，如其年報(bào)所述，包括物流公司，搜索引擎公司，社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)，食品制造商和生產(chǎn)商包括“各種類型的實(shí)體的，數(shù)字媒體的，互動(dòng)媒體”
A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated: stock markets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their inefficiencies.
如此大的廣度讓人更看起來像是企業(yè)集團(tuán)而不是零售商，這使得亞馬遜的股價(jià)看起來更虛高：股票市場通常上利用“多元化折讓”來反映他們的低效率。
Many of these services support Amazon’s own expansion and that of other companies. The obvious example is AWS,which powers Amazon’s operations as well as those of other firms. But Amazon also rents warehouse space to other sellers.It is building a $1.5bn air-freight hub in Kentucky.
這么多的服務(wù)支持著亞馬遜的擴(kuò)張和其他公司的擴(kuò)張。最明顯的例子就是AWS，這項(xiàng)服務(wù)支撐著亞馬遜的運(yùn)營和其他公司的運(yùn)營。但是亞馬遜也將倉庫租給其他賣家，亞馬遜建造花費(fèi)15億美元的貨物空運(yùn)中心在肯塔基州
It is testing technology in stores to let consumers skip the cash register altogether,and experimenting with drone deliveries to the home. Such tools could presumably serve other customers,too. Some think that Amazon could become a new kind of utility:one that provides the infrastructure of commerce, from computing power to payments to logistics.
他們正在在商店中試驗(yàn)新科技讓顧客跳過現(xiàn)金柜臺(tái)支付，并且對(duì)無人機(jī)運(yùn)送到家進(jìn)行實(shí)驗(yàn)。這樣的工具也可能會(huì)服務(wù)于其他的顧客。一些人認(rèn)為亞馬遜會(huì)成為
一種新的公共事業(yè)，一種提供商業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施從計(jì)算能力到支付到物流。
A giant cannot hide
巨人無處躲藏
And here lies the real problem with the expectations surrounding Amazon.If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators. For now, Amazon is unlikely to trigger antitrust action. It is not yet the biggest retailer in America, its most mature market.
圍繞著亞馬遜的期望，真正的問題在于，如果有任何可能去實(shí)現(xiàn)他們，這將會(huì)吸引監(jiān)管者的注意。從現(xiàn)在開始，亞馬遜不太可能去觸發(fā)反壟斷的開關(guān)。在美國最成熟的市場上，亞馬遜還不是最大的零售商。
America’s antitrust enforcers look mainly at a firm’s effect on consumers and pricing.Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine. Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America,according to a Harris poll. (AWS is a boon to startups, too.)
美國反壟斷的實(shí)施者看重公司對(duì)消費(fèi)者的影響和其定價(jià)。從這個(gè)方面來看，亞馬遜并無過失。顧客對(duì)他贊賞有加，他是美國最受好評(píng)的公司根據(jù)哈里斯的民意調(diào)查（AWS也有利于初創(chuàng)公司）
But as it grows, so will concerns about its power. Even on standard antitrust grounds, that may pose a problem: if it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms.
但是隨著他的發(fā)展，對(duì)其影響力的擔(dān)心也是與日俱增，即使在一般的反壟斷角度上，這是也是有問題的:如果他賺的錢如投資者的期望，粗略的計(jì)算意味著他的盈利相當(dāng)于西方25%的零售商和媒體公司的聯(lián)合利潤。
But regulators are also changing the way they think about technology.In Europe, Google stands accused of using its clout as a search engine to extend its power to adjacent businesses. The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory content on Facebook,say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away.
但是監(jiān)管者正在改變他們認(rèn)為的科學(xué)的方式。在歐洲，谷歌被指控用其自家搜索引擎的去擴(kuò)展臨近的業(yè)務(wù)。數(shù)字平臺(tái)擁有的法律責(zé)任的相對(duì)豁免權(quán)_————facebook出現(xiàn)煽動(dòng)性內(nèi)容，和uber的司機(jī)的審批——正在初見減弱。
Amazon’s business model will also encourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon’s growth over profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting. In future,firms could increasingly depend on tools provided by their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the calls will grow for it to be regulated as one. Shareholders are right to believe in Amazon’s potential. But success will bring it into conflict with an even stronger beast: government.
盡量翻譯，有一些參考來自網(wǎng)絡(luò)，和篤師。
做最基礎(chǔ)翻譯，還需要時(shí)間升華。
最后一段明天翻譯。思維導(dǎo)圖也在明天。全部整理在明天。明天好忙啊。
