Day 1 原文文本
【翻譯劃線段落】
Dollars will find buyers hard to find in 2017
With the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and President Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank seemingly unable to escape his addiction to quantitative easing policy, many investors are questioning who wants to buy the euro. The answer is simple. The whole world is eager to buy the euro. The problem in 2017 is more likely to be finding anyone who wants to buy the US dollar.
美國聯(lián)邦儲備系統(tǒng)持續(xù)提高利率，歐洲中央銀行行長馬里奧?德拉吉也似乎無法擺脫量化寬松貨幣政策，這引起許多投資者的議論：誰還會去購買歐元呢？答案很簡單:全世界都熱切想要購買歐元。2017年，誰會想要購買美元才更可能是個問題。
The Middle East is a good example of a region of avid euro buyers. Even with the recent rally in the oil price, most Middle Eastern countries are expected to run sizeable fiscal deficits. The IMF expects Saudi Arabia to run a fiscal deficit of almost 10 per cent of GDP next year. To fund their budget deficits, the Gulf countries are selling central bank reserves and pools of assets held by their sovereign wealth funds.
中東地區(qū)就是熱衷投資歐元的絕佳例證。即便最近油價回暖，大多數(shù)中東地區(qū)的國家預(yù)計都存在巨額財政赤字。聯(lián)合國國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預(yù)估沙特阿拉伯明年的財政赤字將占其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的近10％。海灣國家正在出售央行外匯儲備和主權(quán)財富基金持有的大量資金來為預(yù)算赤字提供資金。
Imagine Saudi Arabia sells US Treasuries, and uses the dollars it receives to pay its civil servants. Then imagine that a Saudi Arabian civil servant takes their pay and uses the money to buy a BMW car in euros. What is happening? Saudi Arabia is selling dollars and buying euros. It does not matter that there is an asset on one side of the transaction and a BMW on the other side of the transaction — the foreign exchange market implication is the same whether it is Bunds or BMWs that are bought.
試想一下，沙特阿拉伯售出美國國債，并用得到的美元來支付公務(wù)員薪酬。然后一位公務(wù)員獲得薪酬后購買以歐元計價的寶馬汽車。這之中發(fā)生了什么事？沙特阿拉伯賣出美元，購入了歐元。交易的一端是資產(chǎn)，另一端是寶馬車，這并不造成任何影響——不會因購買的是德國國債還是寶馬而有任何改變，對外匯市場的影響是一樣的。。
If the Middle East buys assets, they like their assets to be made in America (central banks buy roughly twice as many US assets as other assets). If the Middle East buys products and services, they like their products and services to be made in Europe (the Middle East buys twice as much from Europe as from the US). Thus if the Middle East is selling assets to buy goods, it sells dollars to buy euros.
如果中東地區(qū)國家想要收購他國資產(chǎn)，他們往往會選擇美國（央行收購的美國資產(chǎn)約為其它資產(chǎn)的兩倍）。如果中東國家想要購買商品或服務(wù)，他們往往會選擇歐洲（中東地區(qū)在歐洲購買的商品和服務(wù)是在美國的兩倍），因此如果中東地區(qū)出售資產(chǎn)，購入商品，這無異于賣出美元，購入歐元。
Of course this does not just apply to the Middle East. The world is eager to buy euros because the world wants European products (in preference to US products). The relative current account balances of the Euro area and the US alone tell us that. China, another economy inclined to divest itself of US assets of late, buys more euro area imports than US imports. The same is true of the APEC Asian economies as a bloc. Africa’s preference for Euro area products in comparison to American is overwhelming. Only Latin America exhibits any relative desire to buy “made in America”. The rest of the world clamours for euros to obtain goods and services from their preferred supplier.
1.divest: ~ yourself of sth to get rid of sth處理掉；丟棄:
?The company is divesting itself of some of its assets.? 公司正在處理它的部份財產(chǎn)。
~ sb / sth of sth to take sth away from sb / sth使解除；使擺脫:
?After her illness she was divested of much of her responsibility. 她生病后便給解除了許多責(zé)任。
2.bloc: a group of countries that work closely together because they have similar political interests (政治利益一致的)國家集團
So why is the euro not stronger with all this enthusiastic buying of BMWs and other euro area goods?
3.clamour: to demand something loudly
[clamour for]
The audience cheered, clamoring for more.
[clamour to do something]
All his friends were clamouring to know where he’d been.
to talk or shout loudly:
Children clamored excitedly.
那么為什么歐元并沒有因?qū)汃R以及其他歐元區(qū)商品的熱銷而強于美元呢？
In 2016 the US basically pleaded with the rest of the world to lend it money. US interest rates are above those of the euro area (euro area interest rates are negative). US bond yields are above those of the euro area (many euro area bond yields are negative). US equities have outperformed those of the euro area (by about 15 per cent, and euro area equity performance is negative this year). The US basically did everything that it could to persuade investors to buy dollars — and at the end of all of that effort the euro still trades within 4 per cent of where it traded against the dollar at the start of the year.
2016年美國基本上在央求其他國家借錢給它。美國利率高于歐元區(qū)（歐元區(qū)利率為負值）。美國債券收益率高于歐元區(qū)（許多歐元區(qū)國家債券收益率為負值）
美國股票交易效益超過歐元區(qū)國家（約15%，歐元區(qū)今年國家股票交易效益為負值）。美國基本上已經(jīng)不留余力吸引投資者投資美元——付出種種努力后歐元對美元的匯率仍保持在今年年初的匯率水平4%之內(nèi)。
The challenge for the US is that it needs foreigners to buy dollars every day to stop the dollar from falling. In the first nine months of 2016, foreigners had to purchase $2.7bn every day. That is more than the daily GDP of the Netherlands. Any day that foreigners were not inclined to buy $2.7bn, the dollar would weaken. This is important — if foreigners decide that they want to “wait and see” what Donald Trump’s policies are like before committing to buying more dollars, then the dollar will fall. “Wait and see” is not good enough for the US.
美國現(xiàn)面臨的艱巨任務(wù)是，只有外國投資者每天投資美元，才能遏制美元的跌勢。2016的前九個月，外國投資者得每天購買27億。這數(shù)額比荷蘭的日均GDP還要龐大。只要哪天外國投資者的投資額未能達到27億，美元就會下跌。這很關(guān)鍵——如果外國投資者打算先觀望唐納德?特朗普作何決策再決定是否投資，那么美元就會下跌。外國投資者按兵不動的策略，不能令美國滿意。
The question is not who wants to buy euros — the whole world wants to buy euros because the whole world wants to buy euro area products. The US had to offer considerable financial incentives to persuade foreigners to buy dollars.
