詐騙犯罪是現代城市中亟待解決的一大社會難題。現有研究多從社會學角度,基于微觀層次探討影響詐騙受害的個人屬性特征,缺乏從地理學視角對詐騙受害者生存環境中的中宏觀層次因素的考慮。本文基于犯罪地理學視角,綜合運用平均最近鄰、核密度以及負二項回歸等研究方法,對ZG市5類詐騙警情的時空分布特征和基于建成環境與社會環境兩大維度的影響因素進行了深入探討。
結果表明：① 各類詐騙的時間分布規律各異,但整體上呈現出工作日高于休息日、下午或晚上高于上午、凌晨時段為最低的特征;② 和其他類型的城市犯罪類似,詐騙犯罪整體呈現出與老城區距離衰減的“多中心”顯著性集聚特征;各類型詐騙熱點的空間分布大同小異,多分布在城市的老城區、CBD、火（汽）車站、城中村或高校布局的周邊地帶;③ 各類詐騙犯罪的空間分布影響因素各異,但整體表現出與銀行網點、旅游景點、道路密度、土地利用混合度、高校等建成環境因素高度相關;與購買商品房家庭占比、受教育水平、人口老齡化和城鎮化水平等社會環境顯著相關的特性。本文拓展了犯罪地理學領域對詐騙犯罪的研究成果,證實了各類詐騙犯罪符合日常活動理論的理論假設,對詐騙受害情景預防具有重要意義。
Fraud crime is a widespread social problem that should be taken seriously in modern city. Previous studies mainly focused on personal attributes of victims at the micro level from the perspective of sociology, rather than the environmental factors at the macro level from the perspective of geography.
Using methods such as average nearest neighbor analysis, kernel density and negative binomial regression, this paper aims to discuss spatial-temporal characteristics of five types of fraud crime in ZG city, and explore the influencing factors of physical and socioeconomic environment based on the perspective of crime geography.
詐騙犯罪是在現代城市廣泛存在的值得重視社會問題。之前的研究主要集中從社會學角度微觀層次描述受害者特性，而不是從地理視角下微觀層次下環境因素的角度。使用平均最近鄰分析、核密度和負二項回歸的方法。本文討論了ZG市五種類型詐騙犯罪的時空分布特征，基于犯罪地理學的視角探討了自然原因和社會經濟的影響因素。
The main results are as follows: (1) Each type of fraud crime has its own characteristics of temporal distribution. However, on the whole, fraud crime takes place on workdays more than on weekends, in the afternoon and evening more than in the morning. It reaches the minimum before dawn.
主要的研究結果如下：(1)每種詐騙類型都有時間分布的特點。然而，整體上說詐騙犯罪發生在工作日多于周末，上午和下午多于早上。在黎明之前達到最小值。
(2) Similar to other urban crimes, the spatial distribution of fraud crime reveals significantly polycentric patterns that follow the trend of distance decay, and hot spots of various fraud crimes are mostly alike except minor differences. Diverse fraud crimes are mostly distributed in the old city, CBD, railway stations, bus stations, urban villages, or around colleges and universities. Each type of fraud crime shows different trends of aggregation and dispersion.
與其他城市犯罪相似，詐騙犯罪的空間分布顯示出顯著的多中心模式，隨距離遞減。各種詐騙犯罪的熱點區域大多數相似的除了細小的差異。各種各樣的網絡犯罪大多數分布在老城區、CBD、火車站、公交站、城中村或者在高校附近。每種類型的網絡詐騙呈現出不同趨勢的聚合和分散。
(3) Different fraud crimes are influenced by disparate factors, but all of them are highly correlated with physical environment, such as bank branches, tourist attractions, road networks, mixed land use and college or university campuses. Moreover, house ownership, education level, age and urbanization level also have significant effects on fraud crime. The study expands the research of fraud crime to the spatial context and proves that fraud crime conforms to the theoretical assumptions of routine activity theory, which could potentially help reduce fraud.
不同的網絡詐騙受不同的因素影響，都與自然環境高度相關，例如銀行、旅游景點、道路網、混合用地和高校園區。除此之外，房產證、教育水平、年齡和城市化水平對于網絡詐騙有顯著影響。詐騙犯罪的研究與空間環境有關，符合日常活動理論的理論假設，本研究可能潛在的減少詐騙犯罪。
