原文鏈接：Op-ed: Keeping a cool head in China's simmering tech sector
Op-ed: Keeping a cool head in China's simmering tech sector
專欄文章：冷靜看待中國逐漸升溫的科技產業
Michel Brekelmans, at L.E.K. Consulting breaks down investment trends and troubles in Chinese tech, media and telecom.
艾意凱咨詢公司的 Michel Brekelmans 對中國科技、傳媒和電信行業的投資趨勢和問題分別加以分析。
Last September Alibaba shattered global records with a US$25 billion initial public offering in New York, capping a year in which 50% of venture capital investment in China was focused on Internet industries and technology, media, and telecom, or TMT.
去年九月，阿里巴巴在紐約完成史上最大規模首次公開募股，融資 250 億美元。而就在這一年，中國 50% 的風險投資都聚集于互聯網行業以及科技、傳媒和電信領域（后三者簡稱為 TMT）。
That's only natural: Since 2010, investors in China have been increasingly focused on the tech sector, driven by the ongoing digitization of the economy and rapid consumer adoption of new technology. China is the largest smartphone market in the world with more than one billion users, an install base that has not only created the largest market for mobile applications globally, but also signalled to businesses that Chinese consumers are ready to go mobile-first for many goods and services.
自 2010 年以來，在數字化經濟不斷發展和新技術迅速走向消費市場的驅動下，中國投資者的目光自然越來越多地聚焦于科技產業。中國是全世界最大的智能手機市場，擁有超過 10 億用戶，龐大的用戶基數不僅造就了全世界最大的手機應用市場，對于企業來說，這更是一個信號，表明中國消費者更愿意優先使用手機對很多商品和服務進行支付。
But rising valuations don't always translate to market-shaking innovations, and some start-ups clearly aren't worth their implied sticker price. To better understand what is driving overblown investments, and whether they could blow up in investors' faces, it is necessary to peek beneath the hood of China's tech sector to understand who is investing in what—and how.
但飆升的估值往往并不能帶來引領市場的創新，而在過高的估值下，某些初創企業的實際價值明顯難副其實。為了更清晰地了解是什么造成了過熱的投資，以及這些投資是否會讓投資人血本無歸，我們有必要繞過重重遮蔽，近距離審視中國科技產業，以便了解是哪些人在投資，以及他們的投資對象和途徑。
A TMT boom
科技、傳媒和電信行業的爆發
Over the last six years, the number of tech deals in China has grown approximately 36% on average, with deals doubling from 2013 to 2014. The recent increase in volume and valuation of deals has industry participants increasingly whispering of a bubble. We see four key drivers that explain the boom in venture capital and private equity deals (see above chart).
過去六年，中國科技投資數量平均增加約 36%，2014 年的投資數量比 2013 年翻一番。近期投資數量和價值的增長，使得越來越多業內人士看衰投資前景，擔憂投資泡沫。我們了解到四個關鍵驅動因素，可以解釋風險投資和私募股權投資的爆發（見上圖）。
First, there has been a massive increase in available capital from both domestic and foreign sources. In addition to the number of deals doubling, the amount of funds raised targeting venture capital investments in China almost doubled from US$7 billion in 2013 to US$13 billion in 2014.
首先，來自本土和國外的可用資本大量增長。除投資數量倍增之外，中國以風險投資為目的的基金總量從 2013 年的 70 億美元增長至 2014 年的 130 億美元，近乎翻倍。
Second, investors have been drawn to the sector by the success of China's now-established tech giants. Tencent and Baidu laid the foundation over a decade ago, followed by a second generation led by JD and Alibaba, and who arrived just as innovations in online payments had taken off. Now tech start-ups-turned-heavyweights such as Xiaomi and Dianping are making headlines by demonstrating how private equity and venture capital technology investments can be more than just futile grasps after the global tech leadership crown of Silicon Valley. That has attracted still more foreign investors eager to partake in the growth. In 2014, the Carlyle Group made one of its first Chinese Internet investments (US$100 million) in Ganji, an online classifieds company, during its series F round.
其次，中國現有科技巨頭的成功吸引了投資者來到這一產業。騰訊和百度初創于十多年之前，其后是以京東和阿里巴巴為首的第二代企業，而阿里的到來正好處于在線支付創新大獲成功之時。現在，如小米和大眾點評網等逐漸變得舉足輕重的初創企業成為新聞頭條，因為它們證明了私募股權和風險資本科技投資的另一種可能，即可以不再僅僅局限于早已投資人遍地的全球科技中心硅谷。科技產業的發展已吸引了更多國外投資人的熱情參與。2014 年，凱雷投資集團首次投資中國互聯網企業，其中一筆投資給了分類信息網站趕集網，在趕集網進行第六輪融資時，凱雷集團向其投資 1 億美元。
Third, successful entrepreneurs are becoming investors, creating a disproportionate number of specialized tech-focused funds. Banyan Capital, founded in 2013 with more than US$700 million under management, focuses exclusively on investments in the TMT space. Investors include founders and managers of Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, JD and Xiaomi; founding fund managers all have experience and success in tech industry investment.
第三，成功的企業家變身為投資者，創立了數量眾多的專門對科技產業進行投資的基金。成立于 2013 年的高榕資本，擁有超過 7 億美元可支配資金，只針對科技、傳媒和電信行業進行投資。其投資者包括騰訊、阿里巴巴、京東和小米的創始人及高層管理人員，聘請的基金經理均在科技產業具有成功的投資經驗。
Finally, thriving communities of tech entrepreneurs are creating more investment opportunities. Cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are becoming technology hubs that attract engineers, investors and other industry professionals. Of the 30 Chinese Internet and software start-ups that achieved billion-dollar valuations in the last decade, 20 were in Beijing, making it the second most prominent tech hub globally behind Silicon Valley.
最后，逐漸壯大的科技行業企業家群體正創造著更多的投資機會。北京、深圳和杭州等城市正逐步變為科技產業中心，吸引著工程師、投資者和其他專業人士。過去十年，實現十億美元估值的 30 個中國互聯網和軟件初創企業中，有 20 個在北京，這使得北京成為僅次于硅谷的全球第二大科技產業中心。
Competitive streaks
競爭特點
As investment funds have become more widely available, so has the competition over investment opportunities.
隨著投資基金的目標變得更加廣泛，對投資機會的爭奪也無處不在。
Many traditional international players, most notably the Silicon Valley firms, have been well-grounded in the Chinese market for several years and have successfully adapted to it. We increasingly see senior deal makers spinning out from these groups to set up their own shops, often backed by Chinese institutional investors.
很多傳統國際投資公司，如著名的硅谷各家公司，在中國市場經營多年，早已站穩腳跟并成功適應于此。我們越來越多地看到從這些公司離開的資深投資者去創建自己的公司，這背后通常有中國機構投資者的支持。
Several local firms that often apply a less 'rigid' decision making process have emerged in recent years, resulting in very aggressive timelines. Their shared strategy is to deploy capital as quickly as possible, and they typically avoid applying traditional investment metrics. Thanks to the rise of intermediaries, few good deals are proprietary anymore, and in such a competitive environment there will likely always be some players in the mix who feel they can justify the highest valuation in an attempt to win the bid.
以決策靈活為標志的多家本土投資公司近些年已嶄露頭角，并開展了一系列積極進取的行動。它們共同的策略是以最快的速度部署資本，并且通常拒絕采用傳統的投資衡量標準。中間人的興起，使得優質的投資機會通常不再可能被獨享，在這樣的競爭環境中，往往會有多家投資公司聯合進行投資，他們認為可以通過給予最高估值來贏得投資機會。
Besides these players, funds from a range of non-traditional sources – including sovereign wealth funds, super angels and tech millionaires – are hungry for a slice of the China tech sector. Even many private equity (PE) firms and institutions that normally only participate in later-stage investment are delving into relatively untested pre-revenue assets.
除了這些投資公司之外，一些來自非傳統渠道的基金，包括主權財富基金、超級天使基金和科技界的百萬富翁等，也迫不及待地想從中國科技產業中分得一杯羹。甚至很多通常只參與后期投資的私募股權 (PE) 公司和機構也在尋覓相對風險較大的天使投資機會。
Some sovereign wealth funds are no longer serving as passive asset investors, opting instead to act as lead partners in early-stage tech company fundraising. In 2013 Temasek – Singapore's state-owned investment fund with investments in Xiaomi, Alibaba, Cloudary, and Dididache – established the Enterprise Development Group (EDG), which specializes in funding new businesses and helping them grow with coaching from Temasek's private equity fund.
一些主權財富基金不再扮演被動資產投資者的角色，轉而選擇作為主要合作伙伴參與科技公司的早期融資。淡馬錫公司是新加坡國有投資基金，其在小米、阿里巴巴、Cloudary 和滴滴打車均有過投資。2013 年，淡馬錫公司成立企業發展部 (EDG)，專門對新興企業進行投資，并通過淡馬錫的私募股權基金提供指導，助力投資對象發展壯大。
Opportunities' cost
機會的成本
With more funds targeting a necessarily limited supply of promising investment opportunities, valuations are growing markedly. Average deal sizes for the TMT/Internet segment almost doubled from US$6.5 million in 2013 to US$11.6 million last year. While that average is skewed by some high-profile deals, median deal size also nearly doubled for the same period. The business fundamentals often don't justify these levels, but valuations can take on a momentum of their own, driven by a scarcity of deals and the fear of being left out.
那些數量有限的具有良好發展前景的投資機會，成為越來越多的基金爭奪的目標，其結果是投資對象的估值顯著增長。TMT 和互聯網領域的平均投資規模從 2013 年的 650 萬美元增至 2014 年的 1160 萬美元，幾乎翻倍。雖然一些高額投資拉高了這一平均值，但同期中等規模投資的平均值也已近乎翻倍。這樣的投資規模與當前的商業基礎并不匹配，但估值仍然可以呈現飆升的勢頭，主因便是優質投資機會的稀缺和投資人對無處投資的恐懼。
This valuation momentum is further exacerbated by a lack of traditional, disciplined commercial due diligence among early stage companies: Abandoning traditional metrics means that start-ups are pitching themselves more on the basis of a sexy business plan, a gut feeling and the track record of their management team than any detailed model of the market. After all, many argue, how would one even model a ground-breaking, disruptive innovation?
由于缺乏對早期初創公司進行傳統的縝密的商業謹慎性調查，這種估值趨勢正愈演愈烈。摒棄傳統投資衡量標準意味著初創企業為自己標價時，更多的是基于誘人的商業計劃、非理性的感覺以及管理團隊的過往業績，而非任何具體的商業模式。畢竟，很多人都在爭論，如何才算得上是空前的，具有顛覆性的創新呢？
The risk is that this mentality, suitable when placing bets of $5-10 million, is being carried over into much larger and later rounds of funding for companies that are still in their early days, but whose valuations have ballooned due to momentum and intensified competition among investors for deals.
這種心態只適合進行 500 萬到 1000 萬美元的投資，風險在于，投資人正抱此心態，以更大規模的資金對那些仍處于早期階段的公司進行后幾輪投資，但這些公司的估值已因投資人的熱情勢頭及其之間的激烈競爭而激增。
When this bubble eventually bursts it will be the late and repeat entrants who are most likely to get burned, whether from stepping in at the wrong time or due to having failed to cash in on huge returns from investments completed three to four years prior. It is true that firms like Temasek, Sequoia, and Shenzhen Capital have all enjoyed fantastic returns from the tech industry and are not afraid to continue making hundred-million-dollar bets wherever they please. But while such established investors should be able to weather the storm with full coffers, more recent investors will likely go under.
當這個泡沫最終破滅之時，那些介入較晚的、重復投資的投資者們最有可能蒙受損失，或是因為選擇了錯誤的時間進行投資，或是因為已無法從三四年前的投資中獲得理想的回報。淡馬錫、紅杉資本、深圳創新投資集團等一批公司確實均已從科技產業中獲得了相當豐厚的投資回報，并且不會懼怕在他們喜歡的領域繼續進行億美元量級的投資。但是，雖然實力如此雄厚的投資者應該能夠安然度過這場風暴而不受損失，而更多的根基未穩的投資者將可能血本無歸。
Old-school rigor
老派的嚴謹
In order to make intelligent investments in China's potentially tumultuous tech sector, investors must be willing to take on more risk than is the norm in Silicon Valley. The current self-fulfilling momentum of deal volume and value in particular must be given appropriate consideration before making a first foray into the mainland tech sector.
相對于投資環境規范的硅谷，為了在中國暗潮洶涌的科技產業中實現明智的投資，投資者必須愿意承擔更多的風險。在初次涉足大陸科技產業之前，必須對其中的投資數量和價值，特別是當前自我實現式的投資形勢予以適當的考慮。
As deal sizes creep up from the $5-10 million range into the tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, investors will need to start taking a different, more rigorous approach to ensure the value and risk are justified. Many of the traditional commercial due diligence techniques used in evaluating commercial risks associated with established companies can still be applied, albeit in a somewhat modified way, including consumer testing, benchmarking comparable business models and stress testing market and financial projections.
隨著投資規模從 500~1000 萬美元逐漸增長至幾千萬甚至上億美元，投資者需要采取不同以往的更加嚴格縝密的投資方式，以確保價值與風險在合理的比例之中。評估知名公司商業風險時所使用的很多傳統的商業謹慎性調查方法，包括消費者測試、基準可比性商業模式以及市場和財務壓力測試預測等等，雖然用途稍作改變，但仍然可以拿來使用。
Indeed, it is in this context of slipping standards and ballooning valuations that we think due diligence is more important than ever - and that in TMT, as elsewhere, tailoring one's entry plan to take local conditions into account is the hallmark of a smart China investment strategy. While it might look from a distance like funding rounds for mainland tech start-ups will maintain their stratospheric trajectory for the foreseeable future, the stock market's nosedive this summer should serve as a fresh reminder that investor exuberance can only take one so far off the ground before gravity takes hold.
實際上，在投資標準愈發寬松和投資估值不斷激增的情況下，我們認為謹慎性調查比以往更為重要，而且在 TMT 領域，亦如其他領域一樣，充分考慮中國大陸的投資環境，因地制宜地制定投資計劃，才稱得上是明智的投資策略。雖然以旁觀者的角度看起來，大陸科技初創公司的多輪融資可以支撐它們在可預見的未來達到其發展軌跡的巔峰，但今年夏天股票市場的暴跌卻是一個近在咫尺的教訓，投資者的過度熱情只會讓一家初創公司自不量力地膨脹，然后走向衰亡。
Michel Brekelmans is a Partner at L.E.K. and Managing Director and co-head of L.E.K.'s China practice based in Shanghai since 2006. L.E.K is a global consulting firm that supports clients in evaluating investments and in developing strategies and organizational capabilities that have significant impact on performance. L.E.K has been operating in China since 1998 through offices in Shanghai and Beijing.
Michel Brekelmans 是艾意凱咨詢公司的合伙人，也是其中國業務部門（2006 年成立于上海）總裁和聯席主管。艾意凱咨詢公司是一家全球性咨詢公司，可在投資評估、戰略制訂和運營能力構建等對業績具有重大影響的方面給予客戶有力支持。1998 年，艾意凱咨詢公司在中國開設分支機構，辦公地點位于上海和北京。
今年第二篇練筆，感覺難度挺大，盡力翻譯了出來~
