CHECKLISTS

Helpful for achieving goals, making choices, solving problems,evaluating what is likely to be

true or false etc.

如下準(zhǔn)則有助于達(dá)成目標(biāo)，做出選擇、解決問題、判別真?zhèn)巍?/b>

Use notions

- Use the big ideas that underlie reality

- Understand what something really means

- Simplify

- Use rules and filters

- Know what I want to achieve

- Find and evaluate alternatives

- Understand consequences and their consequences on the whole

- Quantify

- Search for and base things on evidence

- Think things through backward

- Remember that big effects come from large combinations of factors

- Evaluate the consequences ifI'm wrong

要利用確定的概念或某個(gè)想法

使用有事實(shí)做依托的大想法

明白事情的真正意義

簡化

利用規(guī)則并且學(xué)會(huì)篩選

知道我要達(dá)成的目標(biāo)

尋找并且考量替代方案

了解各種后續(xù)情況以及整體結(jié)果

定量

搜尋各種根據(jù)，并在此基礎(chǔ)上行事

能夠反向思考

記住，要有大的成效，就需要諸多因素的總和

評(píng)估如果做錯(cuò)了會(huì)有什么后果

What is the issue?

- What's the question? What is this really about?

- What's the essence or nub of the issue? What is then the key question?

- Relevant? Solvable? Important? Knowable? Utility - applicability?

- Do I understand what the subject is all about? In order to have an opinion on a subject I need

some relevant data and basic knowledge about the subject, otherwise just say:"I don't know".

- Is my judgment here better than others?

- What must I predict here and is it predictable?

- Is a decision needed? What happens if I don't deal with this? Is this something I can do

anything about? Should "I" do this?

- Over what period of time am I considering this issue? Where am I at present?From whose

point ofview?

- Simplify by deciding big "no-brainer questions" first and beg infrom where I am.

問題的解決

問題是什么？事情的實(shí)質(zhì)是什么？

事情的核心或重點(diǎn)在哪里？相應(yīng)的主要問題是什么？

什么是相關(guān)的？什么是可解決的？什么是重要的？什么是可知的？什么是可以適應(yīng)的（Utility-applicability）？

我了解事情的全貌嗎？為了使自己對(duì)事情有想法，我需要一些相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)和基本知識(shí)儲(chǔ)備，否則我就得承認(rèn)“我不知道”。

我的判斷比其他人好嗎？

我必須對(duì)什么做出預(yù)測(cè)？它是可預(yù)測(cè)的嗎？

需要做出決定嗎？如果我不當(dāng)機(jī)立斷，會(huì)發(fā)生什么？為解決此事，我能做什么？“我”應(yīng)該去做嗎？

我對(duì)此問題的思考花了多少時(shí)間？此刻我思考到了哪一步？處于誰的立場(chǎng)上？

簡化問題，先解決“不需大腦思索”的大問題，然后從自己的境地開始思考。

Understand what it means

- Translate words and ideas in terms I understand. Do I understand what words and statements

really mean and imply? Does it mean anything? Will it help me make useful predictions on

what is likely to happen?

- Do I understand how and why something works and happens? What is it doing? Why does

it do that? What is happening? How and why is this happening? What is the consequence of

this (observation, finding, event, experience...)?

- Definitions and implications?

理解背后的含義

把語言和各種想法翻譯成我明白的方式。我能理解所用的語言和結(jié)論的真正含義和暗示嗎？它意味著什么？它是否有助于我對(duì)未來做出有用的預(yù)測(cè)嗎？

我是否了解事情發(fā)生和運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的方式和原因？它正在產(chǎn)生什么影響？為什么會(huì)有這樣的影響？現(xiàn)在的情況如何？怎樣及為何會(huì)發(fā)生如此情況？其結(jié)果會(huì)是什么（會(huì)有什么觀察、發(fā)現(xiàn)、事件、體驗(yàn)）？

Filters and Rules

- Use filters incl. rules and default rules -what test(s) can I make?

- Adapt to my psychological nature, abilities, advantages, and limitations

- Consider values and preferences and therefore priorities and what I want toavoid

過濾和規(guī)則

利用規(guī)則和缺省規(guī)則來篩選——我可以如何檢測(cè)？

改變規(guī)則，以適應(yīng)我的心理特征、心理承受能力、心理優(yōu)勢(shì)和心理局限。

考慮我的價(jià)值觀和偏好，由此判斷事物的輕重緩急，以及希望規(guī)避的事情。

What do I specifically and measurable want to achieve and avoid and when and why?

- What future "value" do I want to achieve? Target numbers? Target effects? Time horizon?

- Assume I have already reached my target. What would this imply in numbers andeffects?

What must then have been achieved? Is it (target) reasonable? Is it reasonable if I ?reverse

this to the present?

- Do I have ways to measure to what degree my goal is being achieved? Key variables or

components of yardstick?

- If I achieve this what will happen? Do I want that to happen?

- Can I break my goal into short-term goals with deadlines?

- What is my real reason for doing this? Is it because I want to or because I have to? Have I

stated my goal from internal and external realities or am I biased now or influenced by some

psychological forces?

- Can I express my goal in a way that makes it easier to see how it is going to be achieved?

- Is this the true goal for what I want to achieve?

我具體想達(dá)成和避免的是什么，什么時(shí)候達(dá)成，原因?yàn)楹危?/b>

就數(shù)字而言，我想獲得什么樣的價(jià)值？目標(biāo)數(shù)字是什么？目標(biāo)效果是什么？所設(shè)定的時(shí)間范圍是什么？

假設(shè)我已經(jīng)達(dá)到了目標(biāo)，那么這個(gè)目標(biāo)如何反映在數(shù)字和效果上？接下來又需要達(dá)到什么？這個(gè)目標(biāo)是否合理？如果從目標(biāo)逆向回溯到現(xiàn)在，是否可行？

我是否有辦法衡量目標(biāo)的完成程度？這個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)是什么？

如果我達(dá)到了目標(biāo)，隨之而來的會(huì)是什么？那是我希望得到的嗎？

我可否把大的目標(biāo)分成若干有期限的短期目標(biāo)？

我做此事的真正原因何在？是因?yàn)槲蚁脒@樣還是因?yàn)槲也坏貌贿@樣？我在闡述目標(biāo)時(shí)，是基于內(nèi)外兩方面的現(xiàn)實(shí)呢，還是受到了某些心理力量的影響？

我能否簡短地闡述我的目標(biāo)，以使人更容易明白我達(dá)到此目標(biāo)的方式？

這是不是我真正希望達(dá)到的結(jié)果？

What is the cause of that?

- To achieve my goal I must understand what causes my goal to be achieved

- What is the equation for goal and what evidence do I have for that?

- What don't I want to achieve? What causes non-goal and what can I do to avoid that? What

must I not do or what must I avoid?

- What variables influence the system? What are the critical forces and variables, the ones

that account for the main outcome? What is the key unknown? What is the certainty with

which I can evaluate, optimize ... the different variables?

- Which variables are dependent on other variables (or situation, environment,context,

timing, behavior) and which ones act independently of each other?

- What force causes a variable to be achieved? What produces the force(s)? Are there short?

and long-term forces? What is their relative strength? How do they combine and interact

and what are the effects? How can I get many forces to operate together in the same

direction? What lack of force would destroy the system? What produces this force? How

predictable are they? What can the forces in place rationally expect to cause?What forces

are temporary and which ones are permanent? How will the system change as the forces

that act on the variable change?

- How resistant is the system to a change in the variables and/or forces? What are the likely

wanted and unwanted short- and long-term consequences (on numbers and effects)of

changes (up/down) - scale, size or mass, strength, intensity, length, time horizon,?environment,?

participants etc. - in the variables or forces? What happens when a number?of small causes?

operate over a long time? What are the consequences if a forceacts on the

variable over a long time? Which force could change it? What is needed to create a critical

mass? What forces when added can create a critical mass? How? Will something else happen

when I change a variable or force? What must happen for a force to change? Can a change

produce other consequences (observe that I am interested in effects on thewhole system ?and?

the final outcome)? Does a change in one variable make a dramatic difference in

outcome? Will the properties also change? What are the consequences if therelation

between the variables changes? What is the change point? Barriers? Catalyst?Tipping

point? Inflection point? Break point? Limits? Is there a time lag before effects happen?

Feedback? What can speed up the cause? What are the critical points when the effects get

reversed? What can I change in the equation and what can others change? How?Who?

When? Which variables must I change to achieve goal? How can I measure the amount of

change? Degree of sensitivity if I change the assumptions? Effects on goal and path? What

will happen if I hold one variable constant? If I at the same time increase one variable and

decrease another? Net effect? If I change one variable or force at a time? What is it in the

environment that can change the situation? What other advantages and disadvantages can

I achieve if I optimize one of the variables? What must happen to cause a change in?outcome?

?Is it still a variable if I change the conditions?

- Are there exceptions to the equation and why? What conditions are?required to achieve

goal? Has my goal different cause short-term and long-term? Is the cause time-dependent?

Can I deduce the cause by observing the effects? Have I looked upon the systemfrom

different angles and viewpoints? What does the measurement of the subject depend on?

- What is the major constraint that limits the goal from being achieved?

成因何在？

為了達(dá)到目標(biāo)，我必須知道能讓我達(dá)成目標(biāo)的各種成因。

通過哪些要素的組合可以達(dá)成的目標(biāo)？我如何佐證此公式？

什么是我不希望獲得的結(jié)果？可能促使“非目標(biāo)”出現(xiàn)的原因是什么？我能如何規(guī)避？我必須不做什么，或者必須避免什么？

整個(gè)系統(tǒng)要運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)起來，會(huì)受哪些變量的影響？這些關(guān)鍵性變量是什么？主要的未知因素何在？有哪些確定的因素可以幫助我評(píng)估和優(yōu)化這些變量？

哪些變量有賴于其他變量（或情形、環(huán)境、背景、時(shí)機(jī)、行為）？哪些變量是獨(dú)立于其他變量的？

什么外力才能促使某一變量出現(xiàn)？這些外力來源于何處？是短期還是長期外力？其相對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)是什么？這些外力之間如何組合、互動(dòng)，效果會(huì)如何？我如何才能讓諸多外力作用于共同的方向？缺乏了哪個(gè)外力會(huì)毀掉整個(gè)系統(tǒng)？這個(gè)外力來源于何處？可預(yù)測(cè)度有多高？這些外力如果出現(xiàn)，會(huì)促發(fā)什么樣的合理結(jié)果？哪些外力是暫時(shí)性的，哪些外力是永久的？作用于變量的這些外力若發(fā)生變化，整個(gè)系統(tǒng)會(huì)發(fā)生怎樣變化？

在這些變量和外力發(fā)生變化時(shí)，系統(tǒng)抵制這些變化的慣性有多強(qiáng)？變量和外力產(chǎn)生變化（上升或者下降）后，可能導(dǎo)致哪些希望的和不希望的短期和長期結(jié)果（數(shù)字或效果），如規(guī)模、體積、強(qiáng)度、密度、長度、時(shí)間維度、環(huán)境、參與者等？一組較小的外力如果長期發(fā)生作用，會(huì)怎樣？如果作用于變量的某一外力長期發(fā)生作用，結(jié)果會(huì)如何？什么外力能加以改變？需要什么才能達(dá)到臨界質(zhì)量？添加了哪些外力后能達(dá)到臨界質(zhì)量？如何發(fā)生作用？如果我改變了一個(gè)變量或者外力，會(huì)導(dǎo)致其他事情發(fā)生嗎？什么情況會(huì)讓一個(gè)外力發(fā)生改變？這個(gè)改變會(huì)產(chǎn)生其他結(jié)果嗎（請(qǐng)注意我感興趣的是整個(gè)系統(tǒng)的效果和最終結(jié)果）？一個(gè)變量發(fā)生了變化，會(huì)對(duì)整體結(jié)果帶來戲劇性的改變嗎？屬性是否也會(huì)隨之改變？如果變量之間的關(guān)系發(fā)生變化，結(jié)果會(huì)如何？促發(fā)改變的那個(gè)點(diǎn)是什么？障礙是什么？催化劑是什么？引爆點(diǎn)是什么？拐點(diǎn)在哪里？暫停點(diǎn)在哪里？局限是什么？有多久時(shí)滯才能等到效果發(fā)生？反饋是什么？什么能令此成因加速？效果若要發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)，臨界點(diǎn)在哪里？對(duì)這個(gè)公式，我能做什么改變，其他人能做什么改變？如何做？誰來做？什么時(shí)候做？我需要改變哪些變量才能達(dá)成目標(biāo)？我如何度量變化的程度？Degree of sensitivity if I change the assumptions？對(duì)目標(biāo)和路徑會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么影響？如果某一變量保持不變，會(huì)如何？我在提高某一變量的同時(shí)降低另一變量呢？會(huì)有怎樣的網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)？如果一次只改變一個(gè)變量或者外力呢？外部環(huán)境中有什么會(huì)改變我的處境？如果對(duì)其中一個(gè)變量進(jìn)行優(yōu)化，會(huì)產(chǎn)生其他什么優(yōu)勢(shì)和劣勢(shì)？什么才能導(dǎo)致最終結(jié)果發(fā)生變化？如果我改變了條件，變量還會(huì)成立嗎？

這一公式會(huì)否出現(xiàn)例外，為什么？需要哪些條件才能達(dá)成目標(biāo)？Has my goal different cause short-term and long-term？這個(gè)成因是否依賴于時(shí)間條件？通過觀察效果，我能否追溯其成因？我有否采用不同的角度和立場(chǎng)來審視整個(gè)系統(tǒng)？對(duì)主題的考量依賴于什么東西？

限制我達(dá)成目標(biāo)的主要力量是什么？

What available alternatives do I have to achieve my goal?

- Judge alternatives in terms of goal, subjectin question, rules and filters, cause and effect,

human behavior, evidence, counter evidence, simplicity and opportunity cost ofmoney,

time, other resources, effort, understanding, risk and mental stress.

- What evidence (incl. models) do I have that these alternatives are most likely to achieve

goal?

- Are they depending on time horizon or event?

- What are the likely consequences of each action? What possible outcomes can happen?

Likelihood? How desirable is each consequence?

- Do I forego any future opportunities if I make a specific action now?

有沒有現(xiàn)成的替代方案可以幫助我達(dá)成目標(biāo)？

通過目標(biāo)、主體問題、規(guī)則、因果、行為、佐證、反證、資金的機(jī)會(huì)成本、時(shí)間、其他資源、精力、理解力、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和精神壓力等因素，來對(duì)其他替代方案進(jìn)行判斷。

我有什么依據(jù)（包括模式）來判斷這些替代方案很有可能幫我達(dá)成目標(biāo)？

這些因素有賴于某些特定的時(shí)間點(diǎn)或者事件嗎？

每一個(gè)行動(dòng)可能產(chǎn)生的后果是什么？可能產(chǎn)生什么效用？可能性有多高？你對(duì)每個(gè)結(jié)果的期待值有多高？

如果現(xiàn)在采取某些行動(dòng)，我是否會(huì)放棄未來的一些機(jī)會(huì)？

What are the consequences?

- Find out which alternative are most likely to achieve my goal by estimating their likely

consequences

- If I do this, what will happen? Why will this not happen?

- What are the likely (logical) wanted and unwanted (or unintended) consequences

(quantitative and qualitative) and consequences of consequences (immediate and over the

course of a long period) of each alternative!event (proposition) factoring in relevant variables?

- What are the different scenarios and outcomes that can happen? What is likelyto happen

short and long-term based on the evidence?

- What can help me make predictions on consequences or if something is likely to be true

or false?

- What must happen for the goal to be achieved? How likely is it that the necessary events

will happen and happen to me? What does the probabilities favor? What will happen if I

reverse the proposition?

- What are the uncertainties that can significantly influence the outcome? What unintended

consequences are there due to repeating effects, complications... ?Is the net effect positive?

Does the consequences predict anything else? What else does this mean?

- What are the consequences if this is true or false?

- Have I considered the whole system from different viewpoints? Have Iconsidered social,

financial, physical and emotional consequences? What are others likely to do?What are my

experiences of earlier behavior? What happens when others do the same?

結(jié)果是什么？

通過對(duì)結(jié)果的預(yù)估，尋找最可能幫助我達(dá)成目標(biāo)的替代方案。

如果我做出了一個(gè)選擇，什么將隨之發(fā)生，什么又不會(huì)發(fā)生？

每個(gè)替代方案（邏輯上）可能產(chǎn)生的想要的結(jié)果或者不想要（或不希望）的結(jié)果是什么（定性并定量）？結(jié)果之后的次生結(jié)果（短期內(nèi)或者長期內(nèi)產(chǎn)生的）會(huì)是什么？

會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么樣不同的情形和結(jié)果？在這樣的依據(jù)下，會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么長期或短期的效應(yīng)？

什么可以幫助我預(yù)測(cè)事情的結(jié)果或其真?zhèn)危?/p>

為了達(dá)到目標(biāo)，什么事情必須發(fā)生？必要事件發(fā)生以及發(fā)生在我身上的可能性分別有多高？如果我逆向而行，會(huì)有什么后果？

什么不確定因素會(huì)極大影響到結(jié)果？重復(fù)出現(xiàn)的效應(yīng)或者復(fù)雜因素會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么不希望的結(jié)果？

錯(cuò)誤的選擇和正確的選擇分別會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么后果？

我是否從不同的角度全面考慮了整個(gè)系統(tǒng)？我有否考慮過其社會(huì)、財(cái)務(wù)、生理和情感上的結(jié)果？別人可能會(huì)怎么做？依照我的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和以前的行為，我會(huì)怎么應(yīng)對(duì)？如果別人也照我這樣做，會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么樣的結(jié)果？

Bias

- Is there any reason for bias due to self-interest or psychological influences that may cause

misjudgment?

- Is this a biased statement or a fact? What are factual judgments and what are value?

judgments?

- How reliable is he? Is he competent enough to judge? Credentials? What is his purpose with

this? Does he have any motive to lie? How does he know that this is true?

偏見

個(gè)人興趣或者心理原因帶來的會(huì)導(dǎo)致我產(chǎn)生誤判的偏見，有何原因可以解釋嗎？

我所做出的結(jié)論或者選擇的事實(shí)中，是否存在偏見？事實(shí)判斷和價(jià)值判斷分別是什么？ — 他有多可靠？他有足夠的能力做出判斷嗎？如何加以證明？他做此判斷的目的是什么？他有沒有撒謊的動(dòng)機(jī)？他如何判斷正誤？

The hypothesis

- Based on what I want to achieve; test statement implied by goal or statement for

consequences.

- For every alternative ask: Is this alternative likely to achieve my goal(true)? For proposition

ask: Is this proposition likely to be true?

- How can I test (testability) if this is true? Can I try to prove it is false before I try to see if

it's true?

- What do I need to know if! shall test this statement? I must first find out the equation for

what causes the statement to be true so I know what is the most important Ineed to know

the future true outcome of and then search for the evidence for and against that this will

be achieved. What is the statement that should be proved?

- What is the simplest hypothesis?

假設(shè)

假設(shè)需要基于我想要達(dá)成的目標(biāo)，并用此假設(shè)去檢驗(yàn)我關(guān)于結(jié)果的預(yù)估。

對(duì)每個(gè)替代方案都要問：這個(gè)替代方案可能達(dá)成我的目標(biāo)嗎？對(duì)每個(gè)觀點(diǎn)都要問：這個(gè)想法是對(duì)的嗎？

我如何檢驗(yàn)?zāi)硞€(gè)表述的真?zhèn)危吭谧C實(shí)之前，我能否先證偽？

要檢驗(yàn)這一表述，我需要知道些什么？首先，我必須知道什么公式能夠讓我的表述成立，然后我才能知道，對(duì)于判斷未來的真正結(jié)果，什么才是最重要的。其次，我要知道能夠支撐和推翻這一表述成立的證據(jù)。哪些表述是需要論證的？

最簡單的假設(shè)是什么？

Look for evidence and judge the evidence

- How likely is it that the key cause (for goal,non-goal, and proposition) will be achieved?

- When evaluating statements or true/false, look for meaning, motives, causes,consequences

and evidence for and against.

- If this were true what would the consequences then imply? Are the consequences of it not

being true illogical or unbelievable? Does it have any predictability?

- How and where can I find the representative evidence if this is true?What is given? What

are unquestionable truths? Will the test or other ways of measure give the same results when

repeated (reliable)? Can I test for consequences (verifiable)? Is the evidencebased on what

is known and have I interpreted the data correct (valid)? What evidence do Ihave? Evidence

against? What grounds do I have for accepting that evidence? Weight of evidence?What is

the quality of the evidence? How credible?is?the evidence? Dependent on time,

environment? Too small sample? Does the statement agree with the available evidence?

Does it violate any scientific laws or laws of nature?

- What representative information do I have? What is happening by observation?Can I do an

experiment to confirm my guess? Does it agree with experiment?

- What is the track record (case rate, base rate frequency, variability,average rate, degree of

randomness, my own experiences, environment, players, and other relevant factors for the

case) on what happened (worked and not) in the past? Is there any reason to believe that

this record isn't representative for what is likely to happen in the future?What can make

the future a lot different than the past? What's been permanent and what hasn't?

- How long can this continue? What is the major cause(s) now? What force(s) can make it

continue, initiate a change, or stop it and why? Is it likely?

- If I ?get evidence that is the opposite ofmy previous convictions I must ask:How does this

happen? What is going on here? What evidence do I have? What grounds do I have for

accepting the evidence?

尋找依據(jù)，判斷依據(jù)

（促發(fā)目標(biāo)、非目標(biāo)和意見的）主要成因出現(xiàn)的可能性有多高？

對(duì)判斷做出真?zhèn)卧u(píng)判時(shí)，去尋找其意義、動(dòng)力、成因、后果和正反依據(jù)

如果判斷是正確的，那么后果將意味著什么？后果會(huì)不會(huì)超乎邏輯或者不可思議？其中有任何可預(yù)測(cè)之處嗎？

我怎樣并且從哪里才能找到支持某一判斷的代表性證據(jù)？已知的有哪些？哪些東西是毋庸置疑的？若反復(fù)加以檢驗(yàn)或用其他方式的考量，會(huì)出現(xiàn)相同的結(jié)果嗎？我能否對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)？這些依據(jù)都是基于已知因素嗎？我是否正確理解了各項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)？依據(jù)在哪里？反面依據(jù)呢？我認(rèn)可依據(jù)的理由是什么？這一依據(jù)的權(quán)重是多少？What is the quality of the evidence？可信度有多高？是否緊密依賴于外部環(huán)境？樣本是否太少？結(jié)論跟手中的依據(jù)相符嗎？有沒有違反科學(xué)法則或自然法則？

我有什么代表性的信息？對(duì)其加以觀察會(huì)出現(xiàn)發(fā)生什么？我能夠通過實(shí)驗(yàn)來證實(shí)我的猜測(cè)嗎？

對(duì)于將會(huì)發(fā)生什么（可行還是不可行），有沒有相關(guān)的過往紀(jì)錄（案例評(píng)估、變異性、平均率、隨機(jī)程度、自身經(jīng)歷、環(huán)境、伙伴與對(duì)手，以及其他相關(guān)的因素）？有什么理由相信這些紀(jì)錄對(duì)未來會(huì)發(fā)生的事情并不具有代表性？什么能讓未來與以往大不相同？什么是恒在的，什么不是？

這能持續(xù)多久？現(xiàn)在的主要成因是什么？什么外力能讓其持續(xù)、能帶來改變、或者造成阻礙，為什么？可能性有多高？

如果我拿到了能夠推翻我之前信念的依據(jù)，我必須自問：為什么會(huì)這樣？現(xiàn)在是什么情況？我拿到的是什么樣的依據(jù)？我接受這一依據(jù)的理由是什么？

Disprove my (or others) conclusion by thinking like a prosecutor

- Consider causes for misjudgments

How can I test and prove that my idea and conclusion is wrong? What reasons arethere

why I might be wrong? Where can I find the evidence that suggest I am wrong? How

credible is my evidence? What facts and evidence disagree with my conclusion/idea?

What major assumptions have I built the case on? Are they built on reality? Are their

consequences logical? Has anyone proved that my assumptions are right? What are the

consequences if my beliefs and assumptions are wrong?

What have I ignored or overlooked? Better alternatives? Have I ignored evidence? Have I taken

into account the limitations when humans are involved? What factors are uncertain and

why? Have I just projected present trends? What have I misinterpreted? Have Iused the right

definitions? Did I consider and combined all the relevant factors? Have I used the

appropriate measure/yardstick? Did I go wrong in the measurement? Have I confused cause

and correlation? What about if my goal is shaped by what I believe is true butit isn't? Are there

random or systematic errors? What other causes can explain my results? Have I considered the

whole system and that interacting parts sometimes canvary in unexpected and unwanted

ways?

- Bias for my own ideas? Is my ego getting in the way ofmaking an intelligent decision? Will

I really beat the historical average/record? Have I looked for contrary effects?

- What do I not see? What is the significance of this? Does an inversion of the assumption

lead to a logical absurdity? Is the opposite more likely? Is there any contrary evidence? What

evidence can prove it is false (or not achieving goal)? What experimental (or experience,

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observation... ) evidence are there that it's false? More evidence infavor of that? What

causes it to be false?

- Meaning? Can I show that the consequences ofit being true are unbelievable?What is the

implied effect if! trace it out mathematically? Would the opposite of the statement be more

likely? If yes, the proposition is probably false.?

像檢察官一樣對(duì)我（或其他人）的結(jié)論提出反駁

思考會(huì)導(dǎo)致誤判的原因

如何檢驗(yàn)和證明我的結(jié)論是錯(cuò)誤的？我可能犯錯(cuò)的理由是什么？從哪里可以找到證明我錯(cuò)誤的依據(jù)？這個(gè)依據(jù)可信嗎？有沒有什么事實(shí)和依據(jù)與我的結(jié)論/觀點(diǎn)不符？

我做的分析基于哪些主要假設(shè)？是基于真實(shí)情況嗎？假設(shè)的結(jié)果符合邏輯嗎？有人證明過我的假設(shè)是正確的嗎？如果我的想法和假設(shè)是錯(cuò)誤的，結(jié)果會(huì)是什么？

我有否忽視了什么？有沒有更好的選擇？我是否忽視了某些依據(jù)？當(dāng)有人力介入時(shí)，我是否考慮到了其局限性？什么因素是不確定的，為什么？我是否只考慮到了目前的趨勢(shì)？我有否誤解了什么？我使用了正確的定義嗎？我是否綜合考慮了所有相關(guān)的因素？我采用了合適的衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)嗎？我有否混淆了成因和相關(guān)性？如果我的目標(biāo)是基于某個(gè)我認(rèn)為正確但其實(shí)是錯(cuò)誤的理念，會(huì)如何？其中會(huì)有隨機(jī)性的或者系統(tǒng)性的錯(cuò)誤嗎？對(duì)于我所得到的結(jié)果，有沒有其他原因可以解釋？我有否考慮過，整個(gè)系統(tǒng)或者某些互動(dòng)環(huán)節(jié)的可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)我不希望發(fā)生的變化？

我的想法是否存在偏見？在做出一個(gè)極具智慧的決定時(shí)，我的自我是否過于膨脹？我真的會(huì)創(chuàng)造歷史紀(jì)錄嗎？我有否看到可能產(chǎn)生的反作用？

我沒看到的是什么？其重要之處是什么？如果逆轉(zhuǎn)我的假設(shè)，會(huì)否得到極度不合邏輯的結(jié)果？這個(gè)可能性是不是更高？有沒有反例？什么依據(jù)可以證明我是錯(cuò)的（或者證明我無法達(dá)成目標(biāo)）？實(shí)驗(yàn)（或者經(jīng)驗(yàn)、觀察）得出的證據(jù)中，有哪些是錯(cuò)誤的？有更多支持性的證據(jù)嗎？這些錯(cuò)誤是如何導(dǎo)致的？

意義何在？我能否向人們證明正確假設(shè)所得到的結(jié)果是不可能出現(xiàn)的？如果我用數(shù)學(xué)的方式準(zhǔn)確描述出來，其隱含的影響是什么？相反的方向是不是更有可能？如果是，那么現(xiàn)在的想法就是錯(cuò)誤的。

What is the downside?

- How can I be hurt? What could possible gowrong? What can turn this into a mistake?

What would the consequences be?

- How often do things go wrong? Surprise factors? What can happen that will dramatically

change the outcome?

- What is the worst thing that could happen - the nightmare scenario? How likely is that?

What will I do if it does? What are the consequences if things go from bad to worse? And

what are then the consequences?

- What are the consequences if I get two or three forces acting in concert against me? Which

alternatives net effects are least worse?

- Execution risk?

- What do I least like? What am I least sure of?

- Can an advantage give me unwanted consequences? How do I lose an advantage?

- How can I structure the "system" to minimize the influence of negatives? Antidotes to what

I don't want happen? Do I have a backup plan for surprises? Can I correct it?What rules

can I install to achieve goal and avoid non-goal? Is there a built-in safety factor?

負(fù)面影響表現(xiàn)在什么地方？

我會(huì)因何受到傷害？什么可能向錯(cuò)誤的方向發(fā)展？什么會(huì)讓事情走偏？如果這樣，結(jié)果如何？

事情出錯(cuò)的頻率如何？會(huì)否有意料之外的因素？什么事情發(fā)生后會(huì)極大改變整體結(jié)果？

可能發(fā)生的最壞的境況是什么？發(fā)生的可能性有多大？如果不幸發(fā)生了，我該怎么做？如果事情繼續(xù)惡化，后果會(huì)是什么？這個(gè)后果的后果又會(huì)是什么？

如果我受到多種外力的阻礙，結(jié)果會(huì)如何？哪種有效效應(yīng)是危害最低的？

執(zhí)行中會(huì)面臨什么風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？

我最不希望出現(xiàn)的是什么？我最不確定的是什么？

一個(gè)看上去是優(yōu)勢(shì)的因素有沒有可能讓我得到不希望的結(jié)果？我會(huì)怎樣失去某個(gè)優(yōu)勢(shì)？

怎樣構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)才能將負(fù)面影響降到最低？有修正辦法嗎？發(fā)生了意想不到的事情，我有沒有備選方案？我能加以修正嗎？設(shè)定什么樣的規(guī)則可以幫助我達(dá)成目標(biāo)而規(guī)避不希望的結(jié)果？有沒有內(nèi)在的安全隱患？

What are the consequences if I am wrong?

What key thing am I betting on? Do I risk whatis important for me for something of?relative low

?utility for me?

What is the cost (dollars, time, mental stress etc) of being wrong weighted against the

benefit or value of being right compared to the next best available opportunity?

If I do this because I believe the consequences are in my best interest/it'strue but I turn out

wrong/it is false, what are the short- and long-term consequences (actual loss and

opportunity cost loss) for my goal and can I handle them and/or reverse them?

If I don't do this because I believe the consequences is not in my best interest/it's false but

I turn out wrong/it's true, what are the short- and long-term consequences formy goal and

can I handle them and/or reverse them?

- If I don't take a decision at all now because I don't believe it is necessary but I am wrong,

what are the short-and long-term consequences for my goal and can I handle them and/or

reverse them?

如果我錯(cuò)了，后果會(huì)怎樣？

我把賭注押在哪些關(guān)鍵要素上？我是否拿對(duì)我重要的東西去冒險(xiǎn)，換取的有可能是對(duì)我效用相對(duì)較低的東西？

與現(xiàn)有的次優(yōu)機(jī)會(huì)相比，我的正確決定所帶來的益處和價(jià)值是什么，錯(cuò)誤決定的成本（金錢、時(shí)間、精神壓力等）是多少？

我這樣做是因?yàn)槲覉?jiān)信其結(jié)果能最好地實(shí)現(xiàn)我的利益；或者我相信能符合我利益，但后來證明我錯(cuò)了；或者它根本就不符合我的利益。上述三個(gè)可能性給我的目標(biāo)帶來的短期和長期的后果會(huì)是什么（實(shí)際損失和機(jī)會(huì)成本）？我能否加以應(yīng)對(duì)和/或還原？

我不這樣做是因?yàn)槲覉?jiān)信其結(jié)果不能最好地實(shí)現(xiàn)我的利益；或者我相信不符合我利益，但后來證明我錯(cuò)了；或者它根本就符合我的利益。上述三個(gè)可能性給我的目標(biāo)帶來的短期和長期的后果會(huì)是什么（實(shí)際損失和機(jī)會(huì)成本）？我能否加以應(yīng)對(duì)和/或還原？

如果我因?yàn)檎J(rèn)為不必要而此刻不采取任何行動(dòng)，但時(shí)候證明我錯(cuò)了，這給我的目標(biāo)帶來的短期和長期的后果是什么？我能否加以應(yīng)對(duì)和/或還原？

What is the value?

- What is the utility or preference of each ofthese alternatives to me? Which alternative is

most likely to achieve my goal and ultimate objective? Is it really more attractive than the

other choices I have?

- What can I use as criteria to judge my alternatives against each other?

- What do I like best if I weigh the alternatives against each other by assigning their

characteristics numerical values?

- Will it make a difference? Make an impact? How willing am I to accept certain out comes?

價(jià)值是什么？

對(duì)我來說，每一個(gè)替代方案的實(shí)際效用和優(yōu)勢(shì)是什么？哪個(gè)方案最有利于我達(dá)到目標(biāo)？它是否真的比其他選擇更有吸引力？

我用什么標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來判斷替代方案之間的優(yōu)劣？

通過對(duì)每個(gè)替代方案的特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行打分，我最看好的是哪一個(gè)？

這個(gè)選擇能不能讓我脫穎而出？能不能造成一定的影響？我是否愿意接受某種特定的結(jié)果？

What yardstick can be used to measure progress or to measure things against?

- What yardstick(s) do I use? What is the yardstick by which the decision is made?

- How can I easily measure to what degree my goal are being achieved? What indicators can

I track?

- Does the "system" give people an incentive to behave in away sothat my goal will be achieved?

Or does it work against the goal?

采用什么標(biāo)桿來衡量事情的進(jìn)展？

我采用了哪些標(biāo)桿？用作決策依據(jù)的標(biāo)桿是哪些？

我怎樣才能容易地評(píng)估我向目標(biāo)推進(jìn)的程度？有哪些指標(biāo)可供我對(duì)照？

我所構(gòu)建的系統(tǒng)能否激勵(lì)人們按照最有利于達(dá)成目標(biāo)的方式去行動(dòng)？或者，這個(gè)系統(tǒng)是否會(huì)阻礙目標(biāo)的完成？

How act now?

- Can I execute? What specific action(s) do I have to do (must do) now? What do I need to

do first?

Who is going to do what, where, when, why and how?

Have I decided on where the critical points (time and effects) are?

Have I installed some kind of control stations and rules? Why is this the right rule? What

are the consequences if I don't install this rule (or change my way of doing something)?

What administrative and practical actions must I do due to the rule? How much time will

it take to follow the rule? Can I control how I follow the rule? Can I installa time-limited

rule? Where does the rules not work?

現(xiàn)在如何行動(dòng)？

我可以執(zhí)行嗎？我現(xiàn)在必須開始采取的特定行動(dòng)是什么？首先需要做的是什么？

誰做什么，什么時(shí)候做，在哪里做，為什么做，以及如何做？

我知道決定性的點(diǎn)（時(shí)間和效果）在哪里嗎？

我是否設(shè)置了一定的控制體系和規(guī)則？為什么這些規(guī)則是合適的？如果我不設(shè)置這些規(guī)則（或者不改變我做事的方式），結(jié)果會(huì)如何？這個(gè)規(guī)則要求我必須采取哪些管理和實(shí)踐的舉措？要遵循這個(gè)規(guī)則，會(huì)花費(fèi)多少時(shí)間？我能否決定自己如何遵循這些規(guī)則？我可以設(shè)置一個(gè)有時(shí)間限定的規(guī)則嗎？這些規(guī)則在哪些地方會(huì)失效？

Have I made an active decision?

- AmI prepared to change the decision to reflect new information or new insights on what

works and not?

- Is another decision contingent on a specific event happening? Have Ievaluated the issue as

it exists today? Is the underlying rationale for the decision still there? What new evidence

is there that can change the likelihood? Does my way of measuring progress give any clue

of what is likely to happen in the future? Events - relevant or irrelevant? Does it make any

difference for my goal (independent of time horizon)?

我所做的是一個(gè)靈活的決定嗎？

我是否準(zhǔn)備好了改變決定，以適應(yīng)新的信息和新的判斷？

如某一特定事件發(fā)生，是否需要做出新的決定？如此問題今天就存在，我有否對(duì)其進(jìn)行過評(píng)估？支持此決定的理性思考現(xiàn)在是否存在？有什么新的證據(jù)證明這個(gè)可能性能可以得到改變？我衡量進(jìn)展的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，是否能讓我判斷之后將要發(fā)生的事情？哪些事件是相關(guān)的，哪些是不相關(guān)的？我的目標(biāo)會(huì)否因此發(fā)生改變（若不考慮時(shí)間長度）？

Post mortem or learning from mistakes

- How well did it or didn't it work out? Did I act? Did I do what I said? What did I think at

the time? Original reasons compared to reality?

- Why did I go wrong? How? Where? Opportunity cost?

- How can I figure out if this is going to continue? Have I acted on mymistakes? How act

to not repeat? What should I have done and didn'tdo? What should I concentrate on? What

must I improve? What must I learn?ager

死后反思還是邊學(xué)習(xí)邊成長？

事情進(jìn)展的情況有多好或者有多不好？我有否采取什么行動(dòng)？我說到做到了嗎？當(dāng)時(shí)我是怎么考慮的？初衷和現(xiàn)實(shí)的出入在哪里？

為什么我會(huì)犯錯(cuò)？犯錯(cuò)的過程是什么？在哪里犯錯(cuò)了？機(jī)會(huì)成本有多大？

我如何判斷現(xiàn)狀是否會(huì)照此繼續(xù)下去？我對(duì)錯(cuò)誤有沒有采取行動(dòng)？如何才能不重演錯(cuò)誤？我該做卻未做的是什么？我應(yīng)該把精力集中在哪里？我必須提高和學(xué)習(xí)的地方在哪？

What exactly is the problem

- What do I want to achieve? Why don't I achievemy goal? What happen? How does it

happen? Where does it happen and not? When does it happen and not? Who's affected?

- What causes my goal? What interferes with the factors that cause my goal?Symptoms or

core cause? What is the single most important limiting factor for reaching mygoal? What

principles or assumptions do I base this on? What are the consequences if theyare wrong?

Assuming no limitations, what would be the best course of action? Other consequences?

WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES

問題的本質(zhì)在哪？

我想達(dá)到的是什么？為什么我沒有達(dá)成目標(biāo)？發(fā)生了什么？怎么發(fā)生的？在哪里發(fā)生的？什么時(shí)候發(fā)生的？誰被影響了？

我的目標(biāo)因何而達(dá)成？能夠促使我達(dá)到目標(biāo)的因素會(huì)受到什么干擾？這些因素是標(biāo)還是本？對(duì)我達(dá)成目標(biāo)構(gòu)成限制的因素中最重要的是哪一個(gè)？我把目標(biāo)建立在什么原則和假設(shè)上？如果這些原則和假設(shè)有誤的話，結(jié)果會(huì)如何？假若不存在任何限制，最好的行為鏈?zhǔn)鞘裁矗科渌赡艿慕Y(jié)果是什么？

WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CONSEQUENCES CONSIDERING HUMAN BEHAVIOR?

人類行為納入考量后的結(jié)果

What is causing me to do this?

What are my present environment and my state?of mind? What is rewarding for me to do/say

if I want to avoid pain? What do I perceivetobe the consequences for me? Are they painful

or pleasurable? What psychological tendencies will influence me? Are they likely to cause a

misjudgment?

什么促使我這樣去做？

目前我所處的環(huán)境和我的心理狀態(tài)如何？如果避免了痛苦，我能獲得什么好處？我如何判定什么是結(jié)果？它們讓我難受還是愉悅？哪種心理趨向會(huì)影響我？這些因素會(huì)導(dǎo)致我做出誤判嗎？

What is the context?

What does the environment and participants(incl. size) look like? Who is the decision-maker

and what are his criteria for making decisions? Who benefits and who pay? Who is responsible

for outcome? Who and what are influencing the participant's perception ofreality?

做決策的語境是什么？

環(huán)境和參與者（包括其規(guī)模）是什么狀況？誰是決策者，他做決策的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是什么？誰獲益，誰買單？誰為結(jié)果負(fù)責(zé)？參與者對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)結(jié)果的看法會(huì)受什么影響？

Can I judge him?

Can I judge his character? What are hisexperiences? What temporary or permanent

characteristics influence him (age, cultural background, health, mood... )?What

environmental (present internal and external) or situational factors influence him? Does he

want tosell me something?

我能對(duì)他做出正確的判斷嗎？

我能判斷他的角色是什么嗎?他的經(jīng)歷如何？哪些臨時(shí)性或者永久性的特征在影響著他（如年齡、文化背景、健康情況或者心情）？什么環(huán)境（內(nèi)部或者外部的）或者處境會(huì)影響他？他是否意圖向我出售什么？

What is in his self-interest to do?

What is logical for him to do? What is rewarding?for him to do if he want to avoid pain? What

does he perceive as painful? What does he fear and why? What does he want more of or what

does he not want to be taken away? What "resources" motivates him?His health, job, family,

position, reputation, status, power? What would give him an incentive ordisincentive? What

reward or penalty system causes his behavior? What is he rewarded (perceived)for doing?

What is he punished (perceived) for doing? How is he measured? How does heperceive the

consequences of non-goal? Is ittohis advantage/interest to believe (or not to believe)

something?

他的個(gè)人利益在哪里？

什么會(huì)符合他的邏輯？他如果避免痛苦，可以獲得什么益處？他將什么視為痛苦？他害怕什么，為什么？他想多得到一些什么，不想失去什么？什么“資源”會(huì)帶給他動(dòng)力？是他的健康、工作、家庭、職銜、聲名、地位還是權(quán)力？什么會(huì)激發(fā)他，什么會(huì)打擊他？什么會(huì)（被他視作）是對(duì)他的懲罰？他可以如何被評(píng)估？他怎樣看待“非目標(biāo)”的后果？對(duì)某事的相信（或者不相信）是否能給他帶來優(yōu)勢(shì)/利益？

What are the psychological tendencies and shortcuts that influence him and can cause misjudgment?

What bias affects his conclusions? What external influences is there, that will likely influence

him? What temptations are there that appeal to his self-interest? What activates his behavior?

什么心理取向或缺陷會(huì)導(dǎo)致他做出誤判？

什么偏見會(huì)影響他得出的結(jié)論？有什么外在原因可能會(huì)影響他？哪些誘惑會(huì)符合他的個(gè)人利益？什么會(huì)激發(fā)他去行動(dòng)？

What are the consequences?

What are the consequences for me? Will my goal still be achieved? Is what is rewarding for

him also rewarding for me? Is the system set up so that the relevant participant's interest

coincides with my goal? Does it "pay him"tomake the wrong decision? Does he understand

the consequences of his behavior? What are the short-and long-term consequencesfor him?

What are the lines of responsibility? Does he have the responsibility for the consequences?

What happens when others do the same?

結(jié)果是什么？

我最終的結(jié)果是什么？能達(dá)到我的目標(biāo)嗎？有利于他的東西是否也有利于我？我們建立的系統(tǒng)是否能讓相關(guān)參與者的利益與我的目標(biāo)相一致？他的錯(cuò)誤決定是否會(huì)由這個(gè)系統(tǒng)來買單？他是否知道他的行為的結(jié)果？對(duì)他來說，短期或長期的結(jié)果是什么？責(zé)任鏈?zhǔn)鞘裁矗克麑?duì)結(jié)果是否負(fù)有責(zé)任？如果換一個(gè)人也做同樣的事情，會(huì)如何？

What system would I like to have if the roles were reversed?

How would I like to be treated if the roles were reversed? What would cause me to do the

things I want him to do? What are the behavioral tendencies I can use to change his behavior?

How shall I behave if! want to guarantee non-goal? Can I now turn around and?avoid those?

如果交換角色，我希望構(gòu)建什么樣的體系？

如果將我的角色調(diào)換，我希望怎樣被對(duì)待？什么會(huì)促使我去做我希望他做的事情？我能通過什么行為取向來影響他的行為？如果我執(zhí)意要達(dá)成“非目標(biāo)”，我需要怎么做？把角色轉(zhuǎn)換回來后，我能夠避免以上事情發(fā)生嗎？

Is this the right system?

Can I appeal to his self-interest? Can I appeal to fear of losing reputation, money, status,

family..? Can I change his present associations to pain? How can I organize the system to

minimize certain influences? Have I told him what I expect? Have I inspected what is done?

Have I supported things done well? Does he have the necessary skills, knowledge and the

relevant information? Does he know what is expected of him? Does he know the goal, how

he will reach it and why that is the best path? Can he measure his progress? Is it related to his

daily activities? Does he have the responsibility and the authority? Is his reward aligned with

the goal? What rules can I install that will consider human weaknesses? Can Iinstall a reverse

rule? What changes must be made? Who will call for them? How likely is that?What are his

values? His goals? What does he consider to be result? What is his perception of the

consequences if he behave like we want him to and if he doesn't?

系統(tǒng)正確否？

我可以滿足他的個(gè)人利益嗎？我能否消除他對(duì)失去聲名、金錢、地位，以及家庭的恐懼？我可以改變他對(duì)痛苦的看法嗎？怎樣架構(gòu)體系才能使某些影響最小化？我有否告訴過他我的期望是什么？我有否檢查過已經(jīng)完成的事情？對(duì)于成功完成的事情，我是否給出了鼓勵(lì)與支持？他掌握必需的技能、知識(shí)和相關(guān)的信息嗎？他知道自己肩負(fù)的期望嗎？他是否明白無誤地知道目標(biāo)是什么，如何達(dá)到，以及為何這是最優(yōu)途徑？他會(huì)評(píng)估自己的進(jìn)度嗎？這與他的日常行為有關(guān)嗎？他是否負(fù)有責(zé)任并獲得了授權(quán)？他所能得到的獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)是否和目標(biāo)一致？我可以設(shè)定什么樣的規(guī)則來應(yīng)對(duì)人類共有的局限性？設(shè)置一個(gè)相反的規(guī)定會(huì)怎樣？哪些改變是必須發(fā)生的？誰對(duì)此負(fù)有責(zé)任？發(fā)生改變的可能性會(huì)有多大？他的價(jià)值觀是什么？他的目標(biāo)？他會(huì)將什么視為結(jié)果？如果他如我們所希望的那樣去做，他會(huì)如何看待結(jié)果？如果他不照我們希望的那樣去做呢？

BUSINESS EVALUATION

業(yè)務(wù)評(píng)估

Filter 1 - Can I understand the business - predictability?

- Reasons for demand- How certain am I that (and can explain why) people are likely to

continue buy this type of product or service in the future? What has happened in the past

and what is likely to happen in the future? Cyclically in demand?Capacity versus demand?

- Return characteristics- Industry and company return characteristics and change over the

last ten years?

- Industry structure- No of competitors and size? Who dictate the termsin this industry?

What is needed to make money in this industry? Position within the industry? Do I know

who is going to make the money in this market and why?

- Real Customer-Who decides what to buy and what are hisdecision-criteria?

過濾器1：我能理解業(yè)務(wù)嗎——可預(yù)測(cè)性

需求的原因——我有多確定（并且能解釋為何如此確定）人們將來仍會(huì)繼續(xù)購買這類產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)？過去的情況是什么，未來可能發(fā)生什么？需求是否呈周期性？生產(chǎn)能力與需求的對(duì)比是什么樣子？

回報(bào)能力——產(chǎn)業(yè)和公司的回報(bào)能力，以及其過去10年的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r是什么？

產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)——競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者的數(shù)字和規(guī)模？誰在該產(chǎn)業(yè)中擁有發(fā)言權(quán)？要在該產(chǎn)業(yè)中獲利，什么因素是必須的？公司在產(chǎn)業(yè)中的地位如何？我是否知道誰會(huì)在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)上獲利，為什么？

真正的消費(fèi)者——誰對(duì)購買行為有決定權(quán)？其決定的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是什么？

Filter 2 - Does it look like the business has some kind of sustainable competitive advantage?

- Competitive Advantage- How certain am I that (and can explain why) they are likely to

buy the product or service from the company rather than from someone else? Are the

reasons virtually unchanged from what they were ten years ago? Are these motivations

likely to be unchanged over the next ten years?

- Value- How strong and sustainable is this advantage? Have the advantages become

stronger and more durable over the years? What can destroy or reduce them?Barriers to

entry? Brand loyalty? Vulnerable to change in demand or prices? Easy to copy?Short

product life cycle? Customer cost and incentive to switch supplier? Annual cost differential

against competition? Capital investments needed? Bargaining power? Obsolescence risk?

New customer alternatives? Change in buying habits or power? Competitor potential to

undercut prices assuming same cost structure? What is needed to make sure the advantages

stay sustainable? Growth opportunities left? Is the demand for the productlikely to grow?

Untapped unit volume demand? Pricing power?

- Profitability-Can the advantage be translated into profitability and why? How does the

company make money? How much capital is needed to produce incremental revenues?

Financial characteristics - return on capital (operating margins and capital turnover), gross

margins, sales growth, cost- and capital structure and efficiency? Normalized free cash flow?

Advantages of scale? Critical variable?

過濾器2：此業(yè)務(wù)是否有足夠的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)？

競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)——我有多確定（并且能解釋為何如此確定）別人會(huì)購買我公司的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)而不是其他人的？其中的原因是否10年來幾無變化？在下一個(gè)10年會(huì)不會(huì)改變？

價(jià)值——我們的優(yōu)勢(shì)能有多強(qiáng)大和可持續(xù)？這些優(yōu)勢(shì)在若干年后會(huì)更強(qiáng)大更具持久性嗎？什么會(huì)破壞或減少這些優(yōu)勢(shì)？市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入壁壘？品牌忠誠度？受需求或價(jià)格變化的影響程度？是否容易復(fù)制？產(chǎn)品生命周期是否很長？客戶改變供貨商的成本和動(dòng)機(jī)為何？每年能夠抵御機(jī)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的價(jià)格差異（Annual cost differential against competition）？需要多大的資本投入？議價(jià)能力如何？產(chǎn)品過時(shí)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？客戶新的替代選擇是什么？購買習(xí)慣或購買力會(huì)有何改變？若成本結(jié)構(gòu)相同，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手會(huì)有多大的降價(jià)空間？需要做什么才能保持穩(wěn)固的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)？還有成長空間嗎？市場(chǎng)對(duì)此產(chǎn)品的需求有上升的可能嗎？定價(jià)能力如何？

盈利能力。競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)能否轉(zhuǎn)化成利潤，并且如何才能做到？公司怎樣盈利？要實(shí)現(xiàn)收入增長，需要多少資本？財(cái)務(wù)特征：資本回報(bào)率（營業(yè)利潤率和投入產(chǎn)出比）、毛利率、銷售額增長、成本/資本結(jié)構(gòu)及其使用效率？正常情況下的現(xiàn)金流是多少？有無規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)？有無決定性的因素？

財(cái)政特征。資本回報(bào)（操作成本的富余和資本轉(zhuǎn)化），毛利潤，銷售增長，成本和資本結(jié)構(gòu)的效用率？正常的現(xiàn)金流？規(guī)模優(yōu)勢(shì)？

Filter 3 - Able and honest management?

- Is the management composed of competent and honest people that understands and

focuses on creation ofvalue?

過濾器3：能干且誠信的管理層？

組成管理團(tuán)隊(duì)的，是能力出眾、誠實(shí)可信，并且理解和全力去創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的人嗎？

Filter 4 - Is the price right?

- Can I buy at a price that provides a good return with a huge margin of safety measured

against other available alternatives and with evidence from facts and figures?

過濾器4：價(jià)格正確否？

我能夠以比其他選擇有更好回報(bào)的價(jià)格買下這個(gè)產(chǎn)品么？需要有事實(shí)和數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù)。

Filter 5 – Disprove

- How can the business get killed? If the company could kill one of its competitors, who

would it be and why? If the company would go away for 5 years which competitor would

they bet on and why? How resistant is the business to adversity? Assume the company paid

out all its equity capital, would it still have any value? Could someone with the access to

billions of dollars and talent, successfully compete with the company? How much damage

could a competitor do if he doesn't care about returns? Recession sensitivity?Execution

risk? Will new technology help or hurt?

過濾器5：反證

生意會(huì)怎樣被毀掉？如果公司要徹底將一個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手置于死地，這個(gè)對(duì)手會(huì)是誰？為什么？如果公司繼續(xù)運(yùn)營下去，5年之后誰會(huì)是競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，為什么？公司業(yè)務(wù)抵抗不利因素的能力如何？如果公司花光了所有的股權(quán)投資，它還會(huì)不會(huì)有價(jià)值？會(huì)否出現(xiàn)某人獲得大量資金和人才，在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中勝過公司？如果競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手并不在乎回報(bào)，他可以對(duì)公司產(chǎn)生多大的破壞？公司對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的敏感程度如何？執(zhí)行時(shí)所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有多大？新技術(shù)會(huì)有益還是有害？

Filter 6 - What are the consequences if I'm wrong?

過濾器6：如果我錯(cuò)了，結(jié)果會(huì)如何？