Note：英文水平一般，且只邊閱讀邊翻譯，因為時間關系沒有修飾文字。出現(xiàn)錯誤請務必指出，如果貼出一大段知識點和建議，必有回報！

“Think it possible that you may be mistaken.”——Quaker Advices and Queries
（這句翻了好久沒有翻出心儀的句子）

IN OCTOBER 2008, Wendelin Wiedeking, Porsche’s chief executive, announced an imminent takeover of VW. Hedge funds that had bet on VW’s share price falling were confounded. Tearful fund managers confronted huge losses. Yet within six months, Porsche was almost bankrupt. In a humiliating reversal, VW turned the tables on the predatory Porsche, which lost its independence – when it had seemed to come within an ace of success. Porsche was ruined by overconfidence. Yet why was Porsche so sure? What made it believe that it could dominate a company 82 times its size?
2008年10月，法拉第CEOWendelin Wiedeking宣布提前接管大眾。Hedge基金預測大眾的股價將大跌。基金經(jīng)理們遭遇了慘重的損失。但是在6個月內(nèi)，法拉第幾乎瀕臨破產(chǎn)。在這個恥辱性的逆轉中，大眾面對法拉第的掠奪性攻擊成功反敗為勝，法拉第在貌似快成功的情況下幾乎失去了自主權。法拉第被自己的自負所摧毀。那為什么法拉第那么確定自己可以打敗大眾呢？是什么讓法拉第相信自己可以控制比自己體量大82倍的大眾呢？
Calamity loves overconfidence. This chapter explores what causes overconfidence and how it can lead to calamity. The starting point is that most managers are confident to begin with. Repeated success makes them even more confident and therefore more prone to behaving recklessly – though without realising it. Business is a game of skill and luck. The important thing is not to depend too much on luck.
自負伴隨著災難。這章將探討引起過度自信的原因和其如何導致災難的。在項目開始的時候，大多數(shù)的管理者都會表現(xiàn)的充滿自信。重復的成功讓他們信心爆棚，因此讓他們表現(xiàn)出更加魯莽的行為傾向——但是他們并沒有意識到。商業(yè)活動是一場技術與運氣的博弈，成功的關鍵是不要過分依賴運氣。
1.Illusions of control 控制的錯覺
In 1980, Shelly Taylor, a psychologist, published a controversial book entitled Positive Illusions. Taylor’s theme (supported by substantial research evidence) is that most people are out of touch with reality most of the time. For instance, whereas depression is popularly regarded as seeing things as worse than they are, Taylor argues that depression is seeing things as they are.
在1980年，心理學家Shelly Taylor發(fā)表了一本引發(fā)爭議的書叫做‘Positive Illusions（積極幻想）’。Taylor的觀點是大多數(shù)人在大多數(shù)時候無法觸碰到現(xiàn)實。比如說，人們普遍認為抑郁癥是患者看到了更糟糕的事情，但Taylor認為抑郁癥是患者看到了事物本身（這里有點禪意啊）。
Psychologists call it the illusion of control, a reference to our innate tendency as human beings to overestimate our ability to achieve outcomes, even those that are obviously due to chance. For instance, would you prefer to choose a lottery ticket or accept a ticket from the shopkeeper? (Assume that the shopkeeper is honest.) Logically, it makes no difference to the probability of winning. Yet you may prefer to choose the ticket – why?
心理學家把這叫做錯覺，有研究表明這是人之為人天生的心理傾向：高估我們成功的能力，但這成功往往是由于機遇。比如說，你更想讓老板幫你選一張彩票號碼還是自己親自選擇？從統(tǒng)計學來說，這兩種情況贏得獎金的概率是一樣的，但你往往會自己選擇彩票號碼。這是為什么呢？
Research into gambling behaviour has shown that players often behave as if they can control chance events. For instance, they shake the cup hard if they need high numbers on the dice and softly if they need low numbers. Then there is the daily “to do” list. Those who compile such lists typically overestimate what they can achieve in a day. Yet that does not stop them from compiling yet another list – as if they never learn. Overconfidence may also encourage frequent trading in stockmarkets. That is, frequent traders may assume that their stock selections will be so successful that transaction costs will prove immaterial.
博弈行為的研究表明玩家通常表現(xiàn)出他們似乎掌控著全局。比如說，當玩家們想擲到一個大數(shù)時就會使勁搖著杯子，但如果想要一個小數(shù)時就會輕輕搖杯子。當我們在寫每日待辦事項清單時， 我們總是過高估計一天能完成的任務量。但是我們再次寫任務清單時，依然這樣做，就好像從來不知道一樣。在股票市場，過分自信也會增加交易頻率。股民們會對所持有的股票充滿信心而頻繁交易卻不在乎交易陳本。
Our innate tendency to overestimate our abilities means we often see ourselves as superior to other people. We also view ourselves more positively than others see us. We often overstate the value of our own contributions, while undervaluing contributions made by other people. For instance, in 1923 two Canadian scientists, Frederick Banting and James Macleod, won the Nobel Prize in medicine for the discovery of insulin. Banting claimed that Macleod had been more of a hindrance than a help while Macleod omitted Banting’s name from all the speeches describing the research leading up to the discovery. Similarly, in group work, most people remember their own contributions rather than those made by other members of the group. Negotiators often underestimate the bargaining power of their opponents and overestimate the likelihood that their final offer will be accepted.
這種天生高估自己能力的傾向意味著我們總是把自己看得比別人更厲害。我們看待自己總是比別人看我們更樂觀。我們通常夸大我們所做出成績的價值，同時低估別人的成就。比如說，1923年，因為發(fā)現(xiàn)了胰島素，加拿大兩位科學家Frederick Banting和James Macleod獲得了諾貝爾醫(yī)學獎。當Macleod在做關于胰島素研究的演講總是省略掉Banting的名字時，Banting就聲稱 Macleod其實是更多阻礙而非促進發(fā)現(xiàn)胰島素。在團隊工作中也相似，大多數(shù)的人總是更在意自己的功勞而不是別人。談判代表總是低估對手討價還價的能力和高估對手最終接受自己報價的可能性。
Research has shown that most people value themselves too highly. The result may be that they price themselves (or their firms) out of the market. The chief executive of a multinational company says:
We needed a piece of research done. Firms in the US and Australia wanted around $20 million for the job. A firm in India said they would do it if we re-kitted their laboratories – $3 million – and they had all the infrastructure and staff in place to support the research – same as the US and Australia.
研究表明大多數(shù)人都會高估自己。這樣的結果可能會導致他們脫離市場高估自己的價值。一位跨過公司的CEO說：同樣是進行一項研究，美國和澳大利亞的公司評估需要2000萬美元，但印度的公司卻只報價300萬美元，并且提供和美澳一樣的基礎設施和技術人員。
Lesson: be humble. 教訓：謙虛點
Overconfidence breeds complacency. When NASA first launched the Apollo moon-landing expeditions in the 1960s, it was so afraid of failure that engineers had to prove that every launch was safe before it could go ahead. As the technology became routine, the system developed a false confidence in itself. Safety standards were lowered. That meant rockets would be launched unless engineers could prove that it was unsafe to do so. The consequences of NASA’s complacency were graphically demonstrated when the spaceship Challenger exploded on take-off killing all on board – before a television audience of millions. Similarly, as memories of Three Mile Island and Chernobyl receded, attitudes towards nuclear energy relaxed. Then in 2011 an earthquake struck Japan followed by a tsunami. Reactors melted down releasing high levels of radioactivity into the atmosphere and the ocean. The disaster also exposed systemic weaknesses, including poor location of the reactors, poor accident preparation, poor emergency response and weak regulation. It was the old story. We forget that a history of no accidents does not mean something is safe.
過度自信喂養(yǎng)自滿。當NASA第一次打算在70年代發(fā)布阿波羅登月計劃時，因為非常擔心失敗，每次發(fā)射前都會讓工程師保證安全性。但當這些變成例行公事時，整個系統(tǒng)演化出錯誤的自信。安全標準被過低設置，這意味著除非工程師證明發(fā)射存在安全隱患，火箭就會正常發(fā)射。NASA自滿的結果就是在上百萬電視觀眾面前，宇宙飛船Challenger的發(fā)射失敗，所有宇航員都殉難了。相似的，三里島和切爾諾貝利事件讓人們改變了對和能源的態(tài)度。之后，2011年的福島核泄漏事件發(fā)生，反應堆泄露的放射性物質(zhì)污染了大氣和海洋。災難總是暴露系統(tǒng)的弱點，比如糟糕的反應堆的選址、突發(fā)事件預案、緊急反應能力和程序。這是個古老的故事，我們忘記歷史上的災難但這并不意味著所有的一切都是安全的。

Toyota’s leaders inflicted huge damage upon the company by refusing to recall vehicles with potentially lethal accelerator pedals. Toyota had known about the “sticky accelerator pedal” problem for months (possibly years) before reports began appearing in the news in late 2009, but acted only when forced to do so by mounting public pressure. The company was finally galvanised into action following worldwide dissemination of a recording of the last words of a passenger in a hired Lexus that allegedly sped out of control.
豐田的領導人拒絕召回存在加速踏板問題的車輛，因為這對公司會造成巨大損失。在2009年底新聞報道出現(xiàn)之前，豐田就已經(jīng)知道了“粘性油門踏板”問題，但是卻在公眾輿論的壓力下才開始宣布召回有問題車輛。一段雷克薩斯雇員的行車記錄在全球范圍內(nèi)傳播，最終導致豐田公司對于這次事件的完全失控。
In a 911 emergency call made just before the car crashed, Chris Lastrella is heard saying, “We’re in a Lexus . . . and we’re going north on 125 and our accelerator is stuck . . . we’re in trouble . . . there’s no brakes . . . we’re approaching the intersection . . . hold on . . . hold on and pray . . . pray.”2 Lastrella was killed in the crash along with the driver of the car and two other passengers. Part of Toyota’s problem may have been that it simply could not believe that its cars could be less than perfect. 豐田的問題是過分相信自己的汽車沒有安全風險。
2.The confidence trap 自信陷阱
Nothing succeeds like success, according to the proverb. Yet repeated success can destroy us. This is because, if we are consistently successful, we expect to succeed. Just as people who experience early wins in games of chance tend to raise their bets, repeated success can tempt us to take bigger and bigger risks because we feel invulnerable.
正如諺語所說，成功不易。但是把成功掛在嘴邊會毀了我們。這是因為如果我們一直成功，我們就會期待成功。在賭博中，一開始體驗了贏錢的感覺會提高我們的賭注。一直成功會讓我們感覺無懈可擊，導致風險越來越大。
Barings almost came to grief 100 years before it was destroyed by Nick Leeson’s activities in the early 1990s. During the 1880s Barings was flying high as evidenced by the runaway success of the Guinness flotation of 1886, when investors, desperate to acquire shares, resorted to wrapping their application forms round stones and hurling them through Barings’ windows. Barings then determined upon an even bolder venture, namely a waterworks project in Argentina. This time Lord Revelstoke, Barings’ senior partner, decided that underwriting was superfluous. The issue failed. Barings was left holding the shares. The firm had to be rescued by the government because of the systemic threat. The partners lost everything. Lord Revelstoke’s mistake was dispensing with underwriting. That decision made the venture much more risky. Lord Revelstoke took the decision because he assumed that the Guinness success would be repeated. Such was his overconfidence that it never occurred to him that it might not be.
Modern firms are by no means immune from the overconfidence trap. In 2007, Vodafone triumphantly launched a $10.9 billion expansion into India by acquiring a 66% stake in Hutchinson Essar, renamed Vodafone Essar. Vodafone expected to acquire a substantial share of India’s growing market for mobile telephony. Yet within three years, it was forced to write down the value of its Indian business by 25%. This embarrassing reversal happened because whereas most countries have three or four network operators, India has 15. An overly confident Vodafone failed adequately to consider the implications of this basic statistic. (The venture has since prospered despite the inauspicious start.)
現(xiàn)代公司也不可能逃脫過度自信陷阱。（2007年沃達豐在印度的投資失敗案例。）
Similarly, Porsche’s status as the most profitable carmaker in the world may have gone to its directors’ heads. Success also boosts our self-esteem. High self-esteem may also explain (but not excuse) unethical behaviour. That is, executives with high self-esteem may believe that they are incapable of acting unethically. （保時捷的例子）成功助長狂妄自大。很多違法職業(yè)道德的行為可以用狂妄自大來解釋。因為自大的高管們從骨子里就相信他們的行為不是不道德的。