A new study finds that deaths in New York City in the early part of the Covid-19 pandemic were comparable to deaths in the city at the peak of what's considered the deadliest pandemic to date -- the flu pandemic of 1918.
一項新研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在Covid-19大流行初期，紐約市的死亡人數(shù)可與當(dāng)時被認為是迄今為止最致命的大流行高峰（1918年的流感大流行）相媲美。
The relative increase in deaths during the early period of the Covid-19 pandemic was actually substantially greater than during the peak of the 1918 pandemic, according to the study published Thursday in JAMA Network Open.
根據(jù)周四在JAMA Network Open上發(fā)表的研究，在Covid-19大流行初期，死亡的相對增加實際上比在1918年大流行高峰期間的相對增加要大得多。
"The big takeaway is that when we compare what happened, we find that the magnitude of change in deaths -- like how big a shock to the system this is -- these pandemics are very similar," said study co-author , an emergency physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital and is an instructor at Harvard Medical School. "In fact, if you think about it, Covid-19's a bigger shock to our health care system today because we have usually just a lower death rate than we did in 1918. So Covid-19 is a bigger change from norms for us than the 1918 flu was."
研究的共同作者說，“最大的收獲是，當(dāng)我們比較發(fā)生的事情時，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)死亡人數(shù)的變化幅度-就像對系統(tǒng)造成的沖擊一樣-這些大流行非常相似。”布萊根婦女醫(yī)院的醫(yī)生，哈佛醫(yī)學(xué)院的講師。 “事實上，如果您考慮一下，今天的Covid-19對我們的醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)將造成更大的沖擊，因為我們的死亡率通常比1918年要低。因此，Covid-19對我們而言是一個更大的變化是1918年的流感?！?/p>
Faust said by comparing the first two months of the pandemic in New York to the worst two months of the pandemic in New York 100 years ago, the Covid-19 period had over 70% as many deaths per capita.
福斯特說，通過比較紐約大流行的頭兩個月與100年前紐約大流行的最壞兩個月，Covid-19時期的人均死亡人數(shù)超過70％。
"Who knows what would be the case if we didn't have modern ICUs and we couldn't treat secondary infections with antibiotics or put people on ventilators or had oxygen," Faust said. "If you compare these viruses side by side, without all the medical bells and whistles we have today, I'd say Covid-19 is worse."
浮士德說：“誰知道如果我們沒有現(xiàn)代化的重癥監(jiān)護病房，又無法用抗生素治療繼發(fā)性感染，或者不能讓人們戴上呼吸機或有氧氣，那將會是什么情況?！?“如果將這些病毒并排比較，而沒有我們今天擁有的所有醫(yī)療手段，我會說Covid-19更糟。”
"We'll never know that for sure, because thankfully now we have the ability to save more lives, but even with all our technology and medical progress, the death rate being 70% as bad as it was at the worst point in 1918, I think people don't realize how serious this is," Faust said.
“我們永遠不會確定，因為值得慶幸的是，我們現(xiàn)在有能力挽救更多的生命，但是即使在我們所有的技術(shù)和醫(yī)療進步下，死亡率仍然是1918年最嚴重時期的70％，我認為人們沒有意識到這有多嚴重?！?/p>
Faust said some people may underestimate how bad this pandemic is, because they are picturing a historic pandemic or plague, like something out of a movie where the cart pulls over on the side of the road and picks up bodies.
浮士德說，有些人可能低估了這種流行病的嚴重性，因為他們正在描繪歷史性的流行病或瘟疫，就像電影中的一些東西一樣，那輛車停在路邊并撿起尸體。
"That's what those refrigerated trucks outside of the hospital are, by the way," Faust said.
福斯特說：“順便說一下，這就是醫(yī)院外面的那些冷藏卡車?！?/p>
The 1918 flu is estimated to have infected a third of the world's population and caused approximately 50 million deaths. Like with this pandemic, it impacted some communities more than others.
據(jù)估計，1918年的流感已感染了世界三分之一的人口，并造成約5000萬人死亡。像這種大流行一樣，它對某些社區(qū)的影響大于其他社區(qū)。
This study only takes into account data that is specific to New York City. It cannot be used to characterize the extent of this pandemic in other cities or nationwide. New York was hit hard early in the pandemic, and since then, other cities have learned from what worked early on, experts said.
本研究僅考慮到特定于紐約市的數(shù)據(jù)。它不能用來描述其他城市或全國大流行的程度。專家說，在大流行初期，紐約遭受了沉重打擊，從那以后，其他城市也從早期工作中吸取了教訓(xùn)。
John Barry,? of the 2004 book "The Great Influenza," said he found the study results surprising.
約翰·巴里（John Barry）在2004年出版的《大流感》一書中說，他發(fā)現(xiàn)研究結(jié)果令人驚訝。
Barry, who was not involved in the new study, said from other indicators he thinks its clear that the 1918 pandemic was "considerably more virulent" than the Covid-19 pandemic, at least for the country.
沒有參與這項新研究的巴里從其他指標(biāo)中說，他認為很明顯，至少對于該國來說，1918年的大流行比Covid-19大流行“更具致命性”。
"I guess when New York was hit we didn't really know how to handle cases yet. Since then we've learned a lot more," Barry said. "I think New York's death toll from Covid-19 is probably higher ... and that will be cut down after that first wave of exposure, but even still, I was surprised that there is no greater difference in these numbers."
“我想當(dāng)紐約受到打擊時，我們還真的不知道如何處理案件。從那以后，我們學(xué)到了很多東西，”巴里說。 “我認為紐約Covid-19的死亡人數(shù)可能更高……在第一波暴露之后，這一數(shù)字將會降低，但即使如此，我仍驚訝地發(fā)現(xiàn)這些數(shù)字之間沒有更大的差異?！?/p>
In terms of deaths, New York had it better than many other cities in 1918, Barry said. The city was exposed to the virus in spring and saw 33,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic, which was a small number compared to some other cities.
巴里說，就死亡人數(shù)而言，紐約在1918年比其他許多城市要好。該城市在春季暴露于病毒，并在大流行期間造成33,000人死亡，與其他一些城市相比，這一數(shù)字很小。
Barry also said with the Covid-19 pandemic, doctors have more options to care for patients. There is no cure, but even the supportive care doctors provide patients now is much better than what patients had in 1918.
巴里還說，在Covid-19大流行中，醫(yī)生有更多選擇來照顧病人。目前尚無治愈方法，但即使是支持醫(yī)生也為患者提供的服務(wù)比1918年的患者要好得多。
"In 1918, supportive care was non-existent," Barry said.
巴里說：“在1918年，不存在支持治療。”
Faust said what he most wants people to take away from this study is the understanding of exactly how serious this pandemic is.
福斯特說，他最希望人們從這項研究中脫穎而出的是對這種流行病的嚴重程度的理解。
"We don't need to wait until the end of it to look back and see that these events are similar in magnitude," Faust said. "What I am driving home here is, that if we don't do something, if we don't take this really seriously, we very much a year from now, could be looking at those same numbers we saw from 1918."
浮士德說：“我們不需要等到結(jié)束時再回頭看看這些事件的規(guī)模是相似的?！?“我要開車回家的地方是，如果我們不做任何事情，或者如果我們不認真對待這一點，那么從現(xiàn)在起一年以后，我們可能會看到與1918年相同的數(shù)字?！?/p>
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